India's oil trade deficit to widen sharply in FY27, warns Crisil

India's oil trade deficit will widen sharply in FY27 due to rising crude prices and heavy import reliance, a Crisil report warns. This is expected to push the current account deficit to 2.2% this fiscal from an estimated 0.8% last fiscal.

India's oil trade deficit is set to widen sharply in FY27 as rising crude prices, weakening petroleum exports and the country's heavy dependence on imported oil place renewed stress on external balances, according to a report by Crisil.

The report, titled "Oil's not well", underlined that India continues to rely heavily on overseas crude supplies, with more than 85 per cent of its annual crude oil requirement met through imports. "India's crude oil trade deficit has been under the pump historically because of having to meet over 85% of its annual requirement from imports," the report said.

Widening Gap Between Imports and Exports

Data presented in the report showed India's oil imports rising steadily from nearly 190 million tonnes in FY14 to well above 300 million tonnes in FY26, while exports remained comparatively range-bound over the same period. The oil trade deficit, which had moderated during periods of lower crude prices in the past, has again started widening. According to the report, the increase in import volumes has not been matched by growth in refined petroleum product exports, which have largely remained flat over the years except for a temporary spike following the Covid-19 pandemic.

Pressure Intensifies Amid Declining Exports

The report noted that pressure on the oil trade deficit intensified from FY24 onward as exports of refined petroleum products declined for two straight fiscals, even while imports continued to rise. "Consequently, the oil trade deficit in dollar terms rose, despite crude oil prices trending down in that period," Crisil said, adding that this marked "a break from the past when the deficit used to narrow as crude oil prices fell".

Worsening Outlook and Price Projections

The report also warned that the situation could worsen further in the current fiscal. Crisil expects Brent crude prices to average between USD 90-95 per barrel in FY27, significantly higher than the average of USD 70.3 per barrel recorded in the previous fiscal.

Impact on Current Account Deficit

The report estimates India's current account deficit (CAD) to widen to 2.2 per cent this fiscal. "With the prospect of oil trade deficit increasing and likely pressure on remittances from West Asia, we forecast India's current account deficit (CAD) to rise to 2.2% this fiscal from an estimated 0.8% last fiscal," the report said. (ANI)

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