Donald Trump effect? Claims of Houthis declaring ceasefire surface after presidential win, sets Internet abuzz

In a development that has sparked widespread online speculation, a news outlet reported on Wednesday that Yemen's Houthi movement had declared an immediate ceasefire in international waters. This announcement has fueled a flurry of speculation linking the shift to the recent election of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States.

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A post by @NewsNow4USA, which has 2.3 million followers on X (formerly Twitter), quoted a Houthi spokesperson as saying, "Our operation in the international waters were for defensive purposes only, and we announce an immediate ceasefire.”

However, please note that so far there has been no official confirmation on this announcement, which has sparked a massive buzz online.

The post, which has now gone viral, has led many to wonder whether the Houthis’ purported decision is a preemptive response to Trump’s return to the White House, given his historically hardline stance on the group and past support for Saudi Arabia’s intervention in Yemen.

Social media users were quick to highlight the irony of this purported development, with posts claiming the Houthis’ ceasefire was motivated by Trump's "reputation as a hard-hitting adversary." Others have speculated that the Houthis could be manoeuvring to avoid escalation with the US, knowing Trump’s “America First” rhetoric may align with stronger action in Yemen.

Here's a look at how social media users reacted to the viral claim:

Revisiting US' recent attack on Houthis

In October, the US conducted its first-ever B-2 stealth bomber strikes on Houthi underground weapons facilities in Yemen, marking a significant escalation that seemed partly aimed at sending a message to the movement’s supporters in Tehran.

Local television stations in Houthi-controlled areas had reported that 15 strikes targeted five sites near the capital, Sana’a, and in the northern governorate of Saada, the traditional stronghold of the Houthi movement.

“US forces targeted several of the Houthis’ underground facilities housing various weapons components of types that the Houthis have used to target civilian and military vessels throughout the region," US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, had said.

The strikes were aimed at degrading the Houthis’ military capabilities to “defend US forces and personnel in one of the world’s most critical waterways,” he had added.

In response, Nasruddin Amer, the deputy head of the media office for the Houthis warned the US stating, "America will pay the price for its aggression on Yemen, and as we have said before, its aggression will not deter Yemen from its stance in support of Gaza."

The Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah, is a radical Shia group aligned with Iran, forming part of Tehran’s broader “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States. The region remains on high alert following the recent Iranian missile barrage of 180 ballistic missiles aimed at Israel, raising concerns of potential Israeli retaliation.

For nearly a year, the Houthis have targeted ships passing through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, claiming these vessels are linked to Israel. These attacks are framed as acts of solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza conflict. However, the group has also attacked ships with no connection to Israel, in addition to launching missiles and armed drones at Israel itself.

The Red Sea shipping channel, which leads to the Suez Canal, is a vital trade route carrying 12% of global commerce. The disruptions caused by these attacks have prompted the US and the UK to begin airstrikes on the Houthis in January. In July, Israel directly targeted northern Yemen in retaliation for a drone strike on Tel Aviv.

Dozens of civilians have been killed in the attacks, according to the Yemen Data Project, a non-profit that tracks the impact of airstrikes in the country.

The Houthis have controlled northern Yemen, home to most of the country’s population, since 2014. Under their rule, the group has implemented harsh measures on the civilian population. Despite intense bombing campaigns and a years-long siege led by a Saudi and UAE coalition, the Houthis have remained entrenched, causing widespread hunger and disease.

Trump's Return to Power: Potential Impact on US Policy Towards the Houthis

Dealing with the Houthi threat has divided the US foreign policy establishment and strained relations with Arab partners. Late last year, the US began escorting vessels in the Red Sea, and in January, the White House authorized strikes against the Houthis. However, when the Biden administration sought local partners for its mission, Operation Prosperity Guardian, only Bahrain joined.

Following his historic election as the 47th President of the US, Donald Trump will likely face pressure from defense officials to expand operations against the Houthis. Frank McKenzie, former commander of US Central Command, said the Houthis had "checkmated" the Biden administration, accusing it of lacking the "political will" to use heavier firepower against the group. He warned that "the Houthis have prevailed," and that they control strategic areas like the Bab el-Mandeb strait, suggesting they might soon target American service members.

On the other hand, some officials are hesitant to escalate the conflict. Gerald Feierstein, former US ambassador to Yemen, believes the most direct way to stop the Houthi attacks is by securing a ceasefire in Gaza. He argued that if the Gaza conflict ends, it would remove the Houthis' justification for their actions. Feierstein pointed out that Houthi attacks significantly diminished during a brief truce between Hamas and Israel in November when hostages were released.

A ceasefire could also make it easier for the US to rally partners like Egypt and Saudi Arabia to impose sanctions on the Houthis and stop the flow of arms through the Red Sea.

In January, Biden partially reversed his earlier decision to lift the terrorist designation on the Houthis. While the group was named a "specially designated global terrorist" in response to their maritime attacks, Biden stopped short of reinstating the stricter "foreign terrorist organization" (FTO) label. The FTO designation would make it harder to provide humanitarian aid to Yemen, which is already suffering from war and famine.

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Now, Donald Trump would be expected to back a more aggressive approach, supporting the anti-Houthi coalition and potentially reinstating the FTO designation. However, the Trump administration would also likely be divided, with some figures like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo pushing for a tougher stance on Iran and the Houthis, while others, including vice president-elect JD Vance, might be more reluctant to engage deeply in the Middle East.

"If Trump returns to the White House, he will come in and support the anti-Houthi coalition in both the US and the Middle East. He would support more powerful strikes and reinstate the FTO designation," Mohammed al-Basha, a Yemeni expert, was quoted as saying in a Middle East Eye report prior to the announcement of the US election 2024 winner.

"An FTO would just stop trading companies from importing food and you will not really hurt the Houthis because the Houthis have established their own parallel financial structures and network not connected to the western world," Basha had added.