Gujarat Election 2022 SWOT analysis: Will Arvind Kejriwal's AAP change equations?

Will the aggressive entry of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Gujarat change the state's Assembly election equations? This question has recently dominated political discourse following the success of Arvind Kejriwal's party. 

The presence of AAP has turned next month's elections into a three-cornered contest in a state where politics has mainly remained bipolar. The Kejriwal-led AAP party, running for all 182 seats, is in power in Delhi and Punjab.

Here's the SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis of the AAP in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's and Home Minister Amit Shah's home state.

A) Strengths:
1) Appeal to lower-middle-class voters and the AAP's pitch as a party with a difference.

2) The voter outreach included many 'welfare guarantees' such as free electricity up to 300 units per month, Rs 3,000 per month for jobless people, and Rs 1,000 per month for women over 18 years.

3) The promises to address issues important to voters may make AAP an appealing option. 

B) Weaknesses:
1) AAP lacks a mass-appealing local leader, and its grassroots organisation is inadequate compared to rival parties.

2) AAP has insufficient experience in Gujarat politics.

3) AAP has no vote bank, and the seats won by local bodies in 2021 cannot be used to predict its performance in an Assembly election.

C) Opportunities:
1) AAP has the opportunity to make its voice heard in Gujarat and create a new political narrative. 

2) Winning a few seats in a state dominated by the BJP and the Congress will help the AAP establish a base and boost its stock ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

D) Threats: 
1) The ' Modi factor,' which could give the BJP an advantage.

2) The BJP's deeply rooted Hindutva politics.

(With inputs from PTI)

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• AAP
• Aam Aadmi Party
• Amit Shah
• Arvind Kejriwal
• BJP
• Bharatiya Janata Party
• Gujarat
• Narendra Modi