Russia-Ukraine war: 'Putin may stop before Dnieper river'

Experts in India say that it would be premature to jump to a conclusion that Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That's because Putin's statement was limited to the Donbas region, where the rebels had sought Russian military help against Ukrainian forces.

Russia on Thursday launched a military operation in eastern Ukraine after the newly-recognized Republics -- Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine by Russia sought military assistance from Vladimir Putin's administration. 

The military operation in the Donbas region was launched even as the United Nations Security Council was in a huddle to discuss the Ukraine issue. The meeting was scheduled twice in a week time. 

Russian president, in his declaration of war, warned other countries not to interfere in his affairs in eastern Ukraine. He threatened those nations opposing Russia with consequences "greater than any they have faced in history". 

Meanwhile, the global community, especially the West and the United States, have accused the Russian president of launching unprovoked attack on Ukrainian territory. 

Decoding his statement, experts in India say that it would be premature to jump to a conclusion that Russia has launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That's because Putin's statement was limited to the Donbas region, where the rebels had sought Russian military help against Ukrainian forces.   

According to Dr Swaran Singh, Professor of Diplomacy and Disarmament at Jawahar Lal Nehru University, "The war at this stage is confined to Donbas region wherein Putin has formally announced his operation.

"First of all, it is dangerous to hazard a guess that Putin has launched a full-scale war on Ukraine. He made a speech to clear that what he was actually doing. He authorised the military operation in Donbas region. That is what he said so there should be no confusion."

Dr Swasti Rao, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar-Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, said: "Putin is not worried about economic costs of the conflict or the Nord Stream 2 or the sanctions anymore. He has factored it all in.

"Putin thinks that he that can launch military aggression against Russia's neighbours and get away with it. No one else after him will be able to do it. Look at what he has done since 2008 in Georgia, 2014 in Crimea, and now 2022 in Ukraine," Dr Swasti Rao said.

"As a background, he has been weakening and isolating these countries for decades by perpetrating hybrid and cyber warfare against them. When he is talking to international media he often mentions NATO and guarantees from NATO against eastward expansion, but when he talks to Russia, he hardly ever mentioned NATO. He only talks about the grand history of the Russian empire," she said.

"So far, he has maintained that he only intends to limit himself till Donetsk and Luhansk. But this cannot be taken without a pinch of salt. In his repeated addresses he has been referring to Kyiv being the original cradle of Russian civilization. I doubt that he will only limit himself to the eastern region in the long run," the expert said, adding, "Putin may stop before the Dnieper river (navigable waterway that is crucial for Ukraine's economy and ends up in the Black Sea) now."

Also watch: Explained: Vladimir Putin's brinksmanship over Luhansk and Donetsk