Punjab Election 2022: AAP may emerge as single largest party, says latest poll

Could the Aam Aadmi Party stage a major upset in Punjab in the forthcoming assembly elections in the state in 2022? According to a latest opinion poll, conducted by India News-Jan Ki Baat, Arvind Kejriwal's AAP could upstage the Congress and emerge as the single largest party in the state on counting day.

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Seat Projection

According to the Jan Ki Baat poll, the AAP could win 50 to 57 seats in the 117 seat Punjab assembly. This would be a massive gain for the AAP which in the last election when it made its debut in the state won 20 seats. The Congress, which has barely recovered from the massive infighting, is projected to lose 30 from its 2017 tally and settle for somewhere between 40-46 seats. The opinion poll showed the Shiromani Akali Dal repeating its 2017 performance (18 seats in 2017) securing 16 to 21 seats in 2022 followed by four seats for the BJP.

As for the vote share, the Jan Ki Baat poll, which took the opinion of 10,000 people in the state, projected that the AAP could corner a vote share of 37.8 percent followed by 34.7 per cent for the Congress and 20.5 per cent for the SAD. The setback for the Congress in the 2022 assembly election, stems from the fact that 55 per cent of the respondents believed that the present Congress government's performance was average while another 20 per cent said the government had failed to deliver.

Farm Laws and Farmer Protest

For over a year, farmers' protests against the now-repealed farm laws was an emotive issue in the state of Punjab. The opinion poll reflects that 70 per cent of the respondents believed that the issue will have a massive impact on the 2022 election verdict. 

The opinion poll also found that 20 per cent of the respondents believed that inflation and unemployment as among the biggest issues other than farmer protests. Another 18 per cent cited development while 15 per cent listed education and 10 per cent said drug problems will be issues that the parties could raise during the course of the election campaign.

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Caste Dynamics

The Jan Ki Baat survey noted a significant shift in the community votes in favour of the AAP. While 35 per cent of the Other Backward Class voters favoured an AAP government, only 30 per cent sided with the Congress and 20 per cent for the BJP. At the same time, 45 per cent of the Jat Sikh voters endorsed AAP followed by the Congress (25 per cent), SAD (20 per cent) and BJP alliance (10 per cent). The Congress found favour only among the Scheduled Caste voters with 48 per cent of the respondents endorsing them followed by the AAP (40 per cent), Akali Dal (8 per cent) and BJP alliance (4 per cent). 

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