UP Election 2022: Latest poll claims Yogi Adityanath will win, another rout for Priyanka-led Congress

If the latest projections are to be believed, the Yogi Adityanath government is all set to win yet another term in power with a clear majority in the forthcoming assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh in 2022. According to a opinion poll conducted by the India News Jan Ki Baat between November 22 and December 20, the BJP appears to be in the driver's seat. 

The survey, conducted with a sample size of 20,000 respondents, suggests that the BJP is projected to win anywhere between 233 to 252 seats in 403 member assembly. The Samajwadi Party is projected to come second in the electoral race with 135 to 149 seats. According to the survey, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party could bag 11-12 seats while the Congress once again remains in single digits and is projected to get anywhere between 3-6 seats.

Vote Share

The Jan Ki Baat opinion poll has predicted a vote share of 39 per cent for BJP while the  Samajwadi Party is predicted to get its highest ever vote share of 35 per cent. The Bahujan Samaj Party may end up with a vote share of 14 per cent, the survey said, adding that the Congress party is predicted to get a 5 per cent vote share and other parties are projected to get 7 per cent vote share.

Popularity Vote

The survey found that 52 per cent of the respondents were happy with the work done by the Yogi Adityanath-led government compared to 48 per cent who were unhappy with the dispensation's work. Another 55 per cent of the respondents believed that Yogi Adityanath was the most favourite choice for the chief minister's post. Only two per cent of the voters preferred to see Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as the chief minister of India's most populous state. At the same time, an overwhelming 75 per cent of the voters highlighted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's schemes have had a positive impact. 

Also Read: Uttarakhand Election 2022 Exclusive: 'BJP has fulfilled all promises; Congress failed as an Opposition

What the voter wants

The India News-Jan Ki Baat opinion poll found that in Uttar Pradesh, 24 per cent of people voted on the basis of caste and religion while another 23 per cent voted based on the development carried out by the government. At least 21 per cent of the respondents said that law and order was an important factor for them while deciding who they would vote for. While 16 per cent of the respondents factored in how much government schemes had benefitted them, 10 per cent said inflation would influence their vote. interestingly, only 1 per cent of the respondents said that Ram Mandir would influence their voting this time.
 

Caste Dynamics

While the BJP, which is seen to be cornering 39 per cent of the total votes, gets a lion's share of its votes from the non-Yadav Other Backward Class (19.46 per cent) and Brahmins (5.6 per cent). The Samajwadi Party gets a bulk of its 35 per cent vote share from the Muslim (16.1 per cent) and the Yadav community (8.1 per cent).

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