Could Water Become the Next Major War Target in the Middle East? Experts Raise Alarm

Middle East water is now a war target as Iran and US strikes on desalination plants raise alarms. Experts warn attacks could trigger massive crises in cities dependent on desalinated water.

In modern warfare, power plants, bridges, and oil facilities are often seen as strategic targets. But a far more basic and fragile resource is now entering the battlefield: water. Recent attacks on desalination plants in the Middle East have raised alarm among experts, who warn that targeting water infrastructure could dramatically escalate conflicts in one of the driest regions on Earth.

A New Kind of Target

The latest concerns surfaced after Bahrain accused Iran of targeting a desalination facility with a drone strike.

Bahrain's interior ministry said on Sunday that the Iranian drone attack damaged a water desalination plant, accusing Tehran of "randomly" targeting civilian infrastructure.

However, authorities in Bahrain later reassured residents that the strike had not disrupted supply.

The country's national communication office said the attack “has had no impact on water supplies or network capacity.”

The incident came just a day after Iran itself accused the United States of attacking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island, a facility that supplies water to around 30 villages.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed the United States launched the strike from a base in Bahrain.

Although these incidents remain limited for now, experts warn that such actions could set a dangerous precedent.

Water economist Esther Crauser-Delbourg cautioned that crossing this line could dramatically widen the conflict.

“The first side that dares to attack water triggers a war far more enormous than the one we have today.”

Why Desalinated Water Is Critical

The stakes are especially high in the Middle East because fresh water is scarce.

The region is among the driest in the world, with water availability around ten times lower than the global average, according to the World Bank.

That scarcity has made desalination plants — which convert seawater into drinking water — essential for survival.

A study published in the journal Nature estimates that about 42 percent of the world's desalination capacity is located in the Middle East.

Many Gulf nations rely heavily on these plants for daily life:

1. 42% of drinking water in the UAE
2. 70% in Saudi Arabia
3. 86% in Oman
4. 90% in Kuwait

These figures come from a 2022 report by the French Institute of International Relations.

Without these plants, experts say, entire urban centres could struggle to function.

“Over there, without desalinated water there, there is nothing,” Crauser-Delbourg said.

Major cities such as Dubai and Riyadh depend almost entirely on desalinated water.

In fact, concerns about the vulnerability of these facilities are not new. As far back as 2010, the CIA warned that disrupting desalination plants in many Arab countries “could have more serious consequences than the loss of any other industry or commodity.”

A 2008 US diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks highlighted the scale of the risk. It warned that Riyadh might have to evacuate within a week if the Jubail desalination plant or its pipelines were badly damaged.

Why These Plants Are Vulnerable

Beyond direct military attacks, desalination facilities face several other threats.

Power outages can shut down the energy-intensive desalination process. Seawater contamination — including oil spills — can also disrupt operations.

Companies running these facilities are now increasing security measures.

“We have strengthened access security and controls in the immediate vicinity of the plants,” said Philippe Bourdeaux, regional director for Africa and the Middle East at French firm Veolia.

The company supplies desalinated water to several major locations, including Jubail in Saudi Arabia and the Omani cities of Muscat, Sur and Salalah.

Recent tensions have also pushed operators to stay on high alert.

“The recent events are of course prompting us to be extremely vigilant,” Bourdeaux said.

In some countries, authorities have gone even further.

“In some countries, authorities have placed missile batteries around the largest plants to counter the drone or missile threat,” he added.

Operators have also developed systems to limit damage from incidents such as oil spills.

Past Attacks on Water Infrastructure

While the current developments are worrying, attacks on desalination plants remain relatively rare.

Over the past decade, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have targeted desalination facilities in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi-led coalition forces have also struck water infrastructure in Yemen, according to data from the Pacific Institute, which tracks water-related conflicts.

Elsewhere, Israeli strikes have hit water infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, the institute says.

Before 2016, similar incidents go back as far as the 1991 Gulf War.

What Happens If Attacks Escalate?

Experts warn that the consequences of sustained attacks could be severe.

Short disruptions may be manageable. But prolonged damage could trigger humanitarian crises across the region.

“We could potentially see major cities facing an exodus. And rationing,” Crauser-Delbourg said.

Water shortages would not just affect households.

They could ripple through entire economies, disrupting tourism, industry, and even data centres, which consume large amounts of water for cooling.

There are, however, some safeguards in place.

Many desalination plants are interconnected, meaning water can sometimes be redirected from other facilities if one plant shuts down.

Most plants also maintain reserves equivalent to two to seven days of water consumption, providing a short buffer against sudden disruptions.

But experts warn that these measures may only help if outages remain temporary.

If desalination infrastructure becomes a sustained wartime target, the impact could extend far beyond the battlefield — affecting millions who depend on these plants for the most basic necessity of life.

(With inputs from AFP)