Opta Supercomputer Predicts English Clubs Over PSG for Champions League 2025-26 Glory

Opta's supercomputer predicts Liverpool as the Champions League winner, with Arsenal second and PSG only third. Barcelona and Real Madrid are ranked lower, while PSG and Marseille face tough group stage draws.

A few days after the Champions League group stage draw, Opta’s supercomputer released its latest predictions for the eventual winner of the competition. The results brought an early surprise: Paris Saint-Germain, the defending champions, are not considered the favorite to lift the trophy again. PSG’s chances are estimated at 12.1%, putting them behind Liverpool, who top the projection with 20.4%, and Arsenal, who sit second with 16%-a boost likely linked to their ambitious summer transfer dealings.

Barcelona and Real Madrid Not Favourites

Barcelona, last season’s semi-finalists, only rank fifth in the forecasts with 8.4%, while Real Madrid, a perennial contender for the title, finds itself down in seventh place on 5.8%.

PSG and OM Face Tough Group Stage

Opta also simulated which teams are most likely to reach the competition’s last eight. For PSG, the outlook remains promising despite a demanding group stage, as the model still predicts them to finish among the top eight sides. Interestingly, the analysis also highlights the toughness of the draw: Marseille (OM) is projected to face the second most difficult path in the group stage, just behind PSV, while PSG sits close behind with the third toughest schedule. Bayern Munich is also ranked among the clubs with the hardest fixtures early on.