XOM Stock Climbs On $4.5B Refining Lift Estimate; Goldman Sees Q3 EPS Exceeding Wall Street Expectations

Margin improvement is expected to come mainly from a $4.5 billion rise in the refining and fuels business, the company said in a filing.

• The company said it saw no volume losses tied to Middle East events in the third quarter.
• Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta said the filing implied Q3 earnings per share near $4.10.
• Exxon is slated to announce full results for the quarter on Oct. 30.

Shares of ExxonMobil (XOM) advanced modestly on Friday after the company said that higher refining margins could add about $4.5 billion to third-quarter results compared with the prior quarter.

As of the time of writing, XOM traded 2% higher at about $178.04.

What Did Exxon Say?

In the second quarter, Exxon’s adjusted earnings stood at $14.7 billion. Compared with the prior quarter, estimated market effects in the third quarter include a $1.3 billion hit from lower oil and liquids prices in the production business, a $0.3 billion gain from higher natural gas prices, and a net $4.4 billion boost from better product margins, the company said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Margin improvement is expected to come mainly from a $4.5 billion rise in the refining and fuels business, partly offset by a $0.6 billion decline in chemicals and a $0.5 billion gain in specialty products.

Other planned and seasonal factors included a $0.2 billion benefit from less scheduled maintenance, a $0.6 billion drag from outside disruptions to operations, a $0.3 billion lift from having more days in the third quarter, and a $0.9 billion reduction in the production business from items such as contract entitlements and sales timing. The company said it saw no volume losses tied to Middle East events in the quarter.

Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta said the filing implied earnings per share near $4.10. That sits above FactSet consensus of roughly $3.87, but below the firm’s own $4.33 estimate, it said. Goldman holds a ‘Neutral’ rating and a $169 price target on the shares. Exxon is slated to announce full results for the quarter on Oct. 30.

How Did XOM Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around XOM stock stayed within the bearish territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at normal levels.

A Stocktwits user cheered the stock approaching its 52-week high of $178.69.

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XOM stock has gained 48% year-to-date. 

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