Will The US Government Shutdown On Valentine’s Day? Here's What Prediction Markets Indicate

This comes amid an impasse between the Democrats and the White House over Immigration and Customs Enforcement reforms, according to a report by The Hill.

• Without an agreement on ICE reforms, Democrats in the Senate say they will not vote for another stopgap funding measure to keep the Department of Homeland Security open beyond Friday.
• In a letter sent last week, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrote to GOP leadership, formally outlining 10 demands for ICE reforms.
• Schumer and Jeffries said the ICE had “terrorized” communities across the country for months, adding that two U.S. citizens were killed in the streets of Minneapolis.

The U.S. government is staring at another partial shutdown on Saturday, coinciding with Valentine’s Day.

This comes amid an impasse between the Democrats and the White House over Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) reforms, according to a report by The Hill.

Without an agreement on ICE reforms, Democrats in the Senate say they will not vote for another stopgap funding measure to keep the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) open beyond Friday, the report said.

“I am not going to support a CR [continuing resolution] if my Republican colleagues can’t come to the table and work with us right now and get this done,” said Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, according to the report.

However, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) stated that it is possible to get the two sides to agree on ICE reforms in time, the report added. “There’s no reason we can’t get this done by Thursday. We have sent them legislative language,” he told reporters on Tuesday.

Why Are Democrats Demanding ICE Reforms?

In a letter sent last week, Senate Minority Leader Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrote to GOP leadership, formally outlining 10 demands for ICE reforms.

Schumer and Jeffries said the ICE had “terrorized” communities across the country for months, adding that two U.S. citizens were killed in the streets of Minneapolis. “Federal immigration agents cannot continue to cause chaos in our cities while using taxpayer money that should be used to make life more affordable for working families,” the Democrat leaders said in the letter.

Two U.S. citizens, Renee Good and Alex Pretti, succumbed to fatal shootings by federal immigration agents in January.

Here’s What Prediction Markets Are Indicating

Bettors on popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket overwhelmingly expect the U.S. government to shut down on Saturday.

At the time of writing, odds on Kalshi and Polymarket indicated an 84% likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown.

The total betting volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket stood at over $2.7 million at the time of writing, linked to wagers on whether the U.S. government will shut down on Saturday. The odds in favor of a shutdown surged by 16 and 11 percentage points, respectively, over the past day on the two platforms.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Wednesday morning’s trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, edged lower by 0.02%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell 0.1%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) declined 0.06%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bearish’ territory.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was down by 0.15% at the time of writing, while the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) fell 0.11%.

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