Will The Fed Cut Rates Today? Here's What Bettors On Kalshi And Polymarket Think
Synopsis
According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 87.6% probability of a 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday.
The Federal Reserve is all set to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and bettors on prediction markets are placing hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of bets to guess what the central bank will do.
Bettors on Kalshi and Polymarket have placed bets worth nearly $393 million to predict the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December meeting, which is set to conclude on Wednesday.
What Are Prediction Markets Showing?
Data from Kalshi shows a 96% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, while nearly 4% expect the central bank to maintain a status quo. Participants on Polymarket were slightly more optimistic, with data showing that 97% of bets favored a 25 bps cut.
According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 87.6% probability of a 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday.
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