Will SpaceX IPO Deliver Strong First-Year Returns? Here’s What The Past Decade Of Mega Listings Reveals

SpaceX raised $75 billion in an historic IPO, with its shares set to debut on Nasdaq later today.

• Seven of the 10 largest U.S. IPOs over the past decade generated negative returns in their first year, according to a Stocktwits compilation.
• Among the group, Didi and Rivian stocks were the worst performers in year one.
• SpaceX’s IPO is the largest ever, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion listing in 2019.

SpaceX is set to make history as it gears up to list its shares on the Nasdaq on Thursday after completing the largest initial public offering (IPO) in corporate history. 

Although indicators such as IPO demand reportedly exceeding supply by a factor of 4 and strong investor confidence in founder Elon Musk point to bullish sentiment, many on Wall Street remain struck by the company’s lofty $1.8 trillion valuation.

How the SPCX stock performs in its early days is anyone’s guess, but history offers a note of caution. Seven of the 10 largest U.S. IPOs over the past decade generated negative returns in their first year, according to a Stocktwits compilation.

Chinese mobility tech firm Didi Global was the worst performer in the group, with its U.S.-listed shares plunging 84% in the first year, followed by electric-vehicle maker Rivian, whose stock declined 64%. Didi’s $4.4 billion U.S. IPO is the second-largest by a Chinese firm after Alibaba’s $25 billion U.S. listing in 2014.

On the positive side, chip designer Arm Holdings and cloud software company Snowflake posted strong gains in their first year as public companies. That said, SPCX’s performance is likely to be influenced more by current market themes.

SpaceX Listed Amid AI Chip Euphoria

Investment in AI development and data center infrastructure remains a key focus for investors. Over the past year, semiconductor and neocloud stocks have rallied sharply, while niche software companies have lagged and Big Tech names have delivered mixed returns. With xAI as a subsidiary and access to a massive AI data center footprint in Memphis, Tennessee, SpaceX is positioning itself as a major player in the AI race.

At $135 per share, SpaceX would trade at a trailing price-to-sales multiple of roughly 94, which is higher than Nvidia, Amazon, and Meta, according to Reuters. That would be closer to pure-play space companies such as Planet Labs and Rocket Lab, which trade at multiples of 50.4 and 115.4, respectively.

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment for SPCX was ‘extremely bullish’ (98/100) early Thursday.

SpaceX IPO Concludes

The rocket, satellite, and AI company raised $75 billion in its IPO, pricing 555.6 million shares at $135 each, according to a statement on its website. SpaceX’s IPO is more than double the size of Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion listing in 2019.

Based on the IPO price, SpaceX would have a market capitalization of approximately $1.77 trillion. Including employee stock options and restricted stock units, its fully diluted valuation would rise to about $1.8 trillion.

Last year, SpaceX's sales rose 33% to $18.67 billion, with Starlink accounting for about 60% ​of the total. However, Musk merged the loss-making xAI, which pushed the company to a net ​loss of $4.94 billion last year, from a profit of $791 million in 2024.

SpaceX is the first of three major IPOs planned this year. Anthropic and OpenAI, two of the company’s AI competitors, are expected to go public soon and could seek valuations exceeding $1 trillion each.

Major investors in SpaceX, such as Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital, are set to make staggering returns from the IPO.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<