Why Did Rocket Lab Hike Its Iridium Bid By 30%? Analyst Says ASTS May Have Been Mystery Rival

Farrar said AST may need telecom backing for a major spectrum deal and faces heavy competition from SpaceX.

• Tim Farrar said AST SpaceMobile may have had a mystery suitor, “Party B,” though its identity remains unconfirmed.
• Party B entered due diligence but withdrew without making an offer and apparently needed a strategic partner.
• Party A offered $41 to $45 per share in cash, but refused to increase its bid.

Rocket Lab (RKLB) raised its offer for Iridium Communications by nearly 30% during negotiations, while satellite communications consultant Tim Farrar said AST SpaceMobile may have been one of the mystery companies that explored a rival bid.

Inside Rocket Lab’s Iridium Bid

Farrar identified AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) as the most plausible company behind “Party B,” which entered due diligence but withdrew without making an offer. The merger filing does not identify the mystery bidders, leaving Farrar’s conclusion unconfirmed.

Rocket Lab and Iridium began discussions in December, with Rocket Lab starting due diligence in March, according to the merger filing. A day after Amazon announced its Globalstar acquisition on April 14, Rocket Lab offered $42.50 per Iridium share entirely in stock. It raised the proposal to $52 on June 3, which is $15 in cash and $37 in stock, before finalizing a $54 offer split evenly between cash and shares.

“What is remarkable about the deal is how Iridium was able to push RocketLab’s offer up by over 25% despite there being relatively little competition for Iridium’s assets,” Farrar said. He also said the timeline supports his earlier, unconfirmed theory that Rocket Lab bid for Globalstar before leaving that process on Dec. 4 and pivoting to Iridium.

Mystery Suitors Circle Iridium

Only one mystery suitor, Party A, submitted a firm rival offer: $41 to $45 per share entirely in cash. It declined to bid higher because it believed Iridium stock was trading at “elevated levels amid market speculation about a potential strategic transaction,” according to the filing.

Farrar believes Party A was a private-equity firm. Iridium adviser Evercore also contacted 10 potential strategic buyers. Four signed confidentiality agreements, but only Party B entered due diligence. Party B withdrew two weeks later without making an offer and would have required a “strategic partner” to pursue Iridium, the filing said.

“The most plausible ‘strategic counterparty’ in this category is AST SpaceMobile,” Farrar said, arguing that AST would have needed support from one or more telecom companies. Farrar believes Party C, which contacted Iridium but declined to bid, was likely Viasat (VSAT). None of the bidders’ identities has been confirmed.

Iridium Secures Greater ‘Value Certainty’ 

According to Farrar, Iridium used Party A’s cash offer to pressure Rocket Lab for greater “value certainty” without revealing how low the rival bid was. Rocket Lab ultimately increased the cash portion of its proposal from $15 to $27 per share while lifting the total offer to $54. The agreement implied about $6 billion in equity value and an $8.1 billion enterprise value.

Farrar said the process also suggests AST may struggle to fund a major spectrum acquisition without a telecom partner, potentially weakening speculation about a bidding war with Amazon and SpaceX (SPCX) for Viasat’s L-band spectrum.

He previously said Rocket Lab and AST are both “trying to emulate SpaceX” through vertical integration, but Rocket Lab may be better insulated from direct competition. “Rocket Lab, I think, has a slightly better position,” Farrar said. AST, by contrast, challenges Starlink directly in satellite-to-phone connectivity. “SpaceX is so dominant in this business now,” he said. “It’s competing really heavily, particularly against AST.”

Iridium Deal Heads To Vote

Iridium filed its definitive proxy and Rocket Lab prospectus on Wednesday, sending the deal to a Sept. 24 shareholder vote. Iridium investors will receive $27 in cash and a variable number of Rocket Lab shares. Rocket Lab has secured a $3.6 billion bridge facility, and the companies expect the transaction to close in mid-2027, subject to regulatory approval.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About RKLB?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for RKLB flipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘bullish’ levels a month ago amid a 27% decline in 24-hour message volumes. 

One user said, “$RKLB This week Max Pain is $80? expect a reversal next two days. Just added a nice chunk.”

View this Stocktwits post

Another user said, “$RKLB Looks like the selling pressure is drying up. A good time to buy more anywhere under $66.50. We should close above $70 today.”

View this Stocktwits post

RKLB stock has risen 38% over the past year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<