When Will Elon Musk Part Ways With Trump? Retail Eyes Q2 Exit From DOGE, But Many Believe 'He Ain't Leaving'

On Stocktwits, where Tesla is the most-watched ticker with over a million followers, retail investor sentiment has largely been bearish since January.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been spending more time at Washington D.C. than the company’s Texas headquarters since the start of this year after President Donald Trump tapped him to spearhead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

The stock has fallen more than 30% since, as investor optimism over the billionaire entrepreneur’s political ties and perceived ability to ease regulations has faded amid a largely self-inflicted brand crisis.

However, Tesla investors recently found a reason to be optimistic after media reports suggested Musk would soon be leaving Trump’s cabinet to focus on his businesses.

Neither Trump nor Musk has commented on this chatter so far. 

The president recently expressed support for Musk by purchasing a Tesla, following reports of protesters vandalizing the company’s electric vehicles — acts he described as “terrorism.”

In March, Musk appeared in a Fox TV interview and said he expects to remain in the Trump administration for another year, saying, "Unless we're [DOGE] stopped, we will get to $1 trillion of savings."

Musk, who also leads SpaceX and artificial intelligence firm xAI, admitted he was managing his businesses “with great difficulty.”

The official DOGE website claims its efforts have so far led to an estimated $150 billion in savings through measures such as asset sales, contract and lease cancellations, eliminating fraud and improper payments, and trimming the federal workforce, among others.

However, some media reports have disputed these figures, with experts saying the calculations are flawed and the savings exaggerated.

On Stocktwits, where Tesla is the most-watched ticker with over a million followers, retail investor sentiment has largely been subdued since January.

A Stocktwits poll asking when users think Musk will part ways with Trump has drawn over 2,700 responses so far. 

Results show that 43% believe it will happen by the end of the second quarter, while 39% think he won’t leave at all. 

The rest expect the split to occur in the third or fourth quarter of 2025.

One user said Musk would leave once he figures out that Trump "no longer needs him, "just like Mike Lindell and everyone else who got played." 

Lindell, the founder and CEO of My Pillow, is a vocal Trump supporter who backed the latter's efforts to overturn the 2020 election but was ultimately passed over for a cabinet role in the current administration.

Another user said if Musk doesn't stay quiet about Trump's economic adviser, Peter Navarro, and tariffs, "he'll be out of the White House before the end of this quarter."

One skeptic said the "damage is done" and would not consider buying a Tesla as long as Musk remains with the company.

Tesla shares now trade at a 15.8% discount to analysts’ average price target on Wall Street, according to Koyfin. 

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