Vodafone Idea: SEBI RA A&Y Says Mid-Term Upside Possible, But Flags Caution Amid Debt Overhang

Vodafone Idea posted a narrower Q4 loss and higher ARPU, but continues to lose subscribers.

Vodafone Idea shares gained over 1% on Monday after the debt-laden telecom major’s losses narrowed in its fourth quarter (Q4 FY25) earnings print. 

SEBI-registered firm A&Y Market Research advises traders to wait for a breakout above the trendline and ₹7.35 with strong volumes for confirmation. 

They peg mid-term targets at ₹8.18, ₹9.08, and ₹10.11, with a stop loss at ₹6.7.

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The telecom operator reported a net loss of ₹7,166.1 crore, a slight improvement from ₹7,674.6 crore year-on-year (YoY) but higher than the ₹6,609.3 crore loss in the previous quarter. Revenue increased 3.8% YoY to ₹11,013.5 crore. 

Its Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) rose to ₹175, a 14.2% YoY growth, and its highest in five years. 

Subscriber growth, however, continues to remain a pressure point. In April 2025, Vodafone Idea lost 600,000 subscribers, including 1.1 million active users, indicating ongoing challenges in retaining customers despite efforts to roll out 5G services.  

The board has approved raising to ₹20,000 crore through a mix of equity and debt to support operations and reduce liabilities. And the government, now holding a 49% stake, has ruled out any further equity infusions or additional relief on Adjusted Gross Revenue (AGR) dues.  

From an investment perspective, they highlight that the approved ₹20,000 crore fundraising plan could provide necessary capital for network expansion and debt reduction. However, the company’s high debt levels and negative equity raise concerns about financial sustainability. 

Additionally, they added that the continued subscriber losses and intense market competition may hinder growth.  

Vodafone Idea’s shares have fallen 11% year-to-date (YTD). 

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