TSMC Posts Blowout Q4, Puts Spotlight Back On Nvidia: Retail Braces For Another AI Trade Overdrive

The Taiwanese chipmaking giant surpassed NT$1 trillion in revenue for the first time in the December quarter.

• TSMC beats revenue and profit expectations for the fourth quarter.
• Forecasts a 40% growth in Q1 revenue, and 37% higher capital expenditure this year.
• Retail investors turn extremely bullish on the stock, adding that the company’s strong earnings report could lift tech stocks on Thursday.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and its major customer, Nvidia, jumped to the top of Stocktwits’ trending list early Thursday, after the Taiwanese contract chip-maker reported very strong quarterly results and raised its planned capital expenditure for this year.

TSMC is the largest semiconductor manufacturer in the world, with its chips powering everything from phones to cars and, more recently, AI data centers. Upbeat results from the company signal that demand for AI chips — and more broadly for AI consumer applications and cloud services — remains robust.

Q4 Results, Forecast

TSMC’s revenue in the fourth quarter rose by 20.5% from a year ago to NT$1.046 trillion ($33.7 billion), and profit surged 35% to NT$505.74 billion – handily beating analysts’ estimates from LSEG/Reuters. It’s the first time sales have topped the NT$1 trillion figure; the company forecast an up to 40% year-over-year surge in first-quarter revenue.

The company will increase its 2026 capital expenditure by 37% to $56 billion, it said, underscoring soaring demand for its manufacturing services, which are used by producers of nearly all the chips deployed in data centers that power AI services.

Taiwan Trade Deal Incoming

The results came as reports indicate that the U.S. and Taiwan could soon announce a trade deal that would, among other things, lower the 15% duty on Taiwanese exports to the U.S. and secure commitments from TSMC to expand its U.S. chipmaking operations. TSMC is aggressively expanding operations in Arizona, where its first manufacturing facility opened in 2020.

Retail’s Reaction 

On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment for TSMC shifted to ‘extremely bullish’ as of early Thursday, from ‘bullish’ the previous day, with ‘extremely high’ message volume. The sentiment for Nvidia was ‘bullish,’ unchanged from the previous day.

“$TSM big time up tomorrow!!” a user remarked, with some users predicting a near term price of $350 and a lift to other tech stocks in the market on Thursday.

TSMC stock rose 54% over 2025, and currently trades near a record high.

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