Trump Says Oil Prices Will Fall ‘Precipitously’ After Iran War Even As Brent Crude Soars Past $97 A Barrel

The U.S. President said in a Truth Social post on Monday that winning the war with Iran would bring down oil and gas prices.

• At the time of writing, Brent crude futures expiring in November were up about 0.08% to trade at $97.08 a barrel.
• Brett Erickson, Managing Principal, Obsidian Risk Advisors, believes that as the war continues, with no peace deal in sight, oil prices could surge to $115 a barrel by the end of the year. 
• In other news, OPEC+ said on Sunday in a meeting that it will keep its oil output policy unchanged for October. 

U.S. President Donald Trump said late Monday that “Oil prices will drop precipitously” after the war with Iran ends, even as Brent crude prices have soared over $97 a barrel, touching six-week highs on Monday. 

The president also reiterated in a Truth Social post that gas prices will also fall “like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran.”

“Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon,” he said. 

Escalating Iran Tensions Push Oil Prices Higher

The U.S. and Iran have been at war since Feb. 28, and tensions over the Strait of Hormuz continue to escalate. 

The U.S. struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responded by striking three tankers and three U.S.-linked vessels in other areas.

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in a post on X last week that if Iran shoots at U.S. ships, “we will destroy (and sink) their oil tankers.” He added that “Iran’s oil tanker fleet is defenseless — Iran has no navy or air force. Our planes, ships & subs can strike them all, in @CENTCOM & @USPACOM.”

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf responded in a post on X on Monday, “Strike our assets and you get struck. We’ve already proven it. Ask the bases that are no longer viable.”

Meanwhile, oil prices continued to climb over the Labor Day weekend as the war with Iran continues to escalate. At the time of writing, Brent crude futures expiring in November were up about 0.08% to trade at $97.08 a barrel, while WTI crude futures expiring in October were trading at $92.37 per barrel, up nearly 1%. 

How Much Higher Can Oil Go?

Brett Erickson, Managing Principal, Obsidian Risk Advisors, believes that as the war continues, with no peace deal in sight, oil prices could surge to $115 a barrel by the end of the year. 

“The primary concern that I see for global oil prices right now (currently ~$97.50) is that NOBODY on earth believes “a deal is imminent” anymore,” he said in a post on X. 

“The absolute BEST CAST scenario right now is that this war rages on until at least December, and likely much further due to Iran’s strategy of ensuring Trump sinks at the midterms.”

Combined with escalating tensions between the two countries and “the inevitable heavy Iranian escalation” around the midterms, he said, “we’re looking at EASILY ~$115/barrel price points again before the year is out.” 

What Is Retail Saying?

The United States Oil Fund (USO), which tracks the price of West Texas Intermediate, was up more than 1% at the time of writing. Retail sentiment around USO was ‘bearish’ at the time of writing. 

One user said, “$USO Just word 'attack' is enough this to go up.”

Another user said, “$USO 150+ coming next week.” USO was trading at $143.52 at the time of writing. 

Meanwhile, ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (UCO) was up nearly 2% at the time of writing amid ‘bullish’ sentiment. ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL) was also up nearly 2% amid ‘bullish’ sentiment. 

One user said, “$BOIL Flirting with 3 dollar shelf. Will it break through?”

In other news, OPEC+ said on Sunday in a meeting that it will keep its oil output policy unchanged for October. 

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