Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Could Come Next Week, Bessent Reportedly Says – And Prediction Markets Have A Front-Runner

The Treasury Secretary stated that President Trump has personally met with all potential Fed Chair candidates.

• Last week, President Trump pointed to Hassett during a roundtable at the White House, indicating he would prefer to keep the latter as the country’s top economic advisor.
• Data from Kalshi shows a 60% probability that Kevin Warsh will emerge as the Fed Chair pick.
• Participants on Polymarket were nearly just as optimistic about Warsh’s chances, with odds of 61% at the time of writing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly stated on Tuesday that he expects President Donald Trump to announce his Federal Reserve Chair pick by next week.

“We’ve had substantial conversations about this. We’ve run a process that started in September… 11 strong candidates, we’re now down to four candidates. The President has personally met with all of them and it’s going to be his decision,” Bessent said during an interview with CNBC from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

White House National Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett, ex-Fed official Kevin Warsh, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder are the four candidates for the Fed Chair position.

Who Does Trump Prefer?

Last week, President Trump pointed to Hassett during a roundtable at the White House, indicating that he would prefer to keep the latter as the country’s top economic advisor.

“I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You ⁠were fantastic on television today. I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth,” he said.

What Are Bettors Thinking?

Data from Kalshi shows a 60% probability that Warsh will emerge as the Fed Chair pick.

Participants on Polymarket were nearly just as optimistic about Warsh’s chances, with odds of 61% at the time of writing.

However, these prediction market odds are not forecasts by experts, but sentiment indicators based on the trades on the respective prediction platforms.

Bessent Calls Out Powell

Bessent also called out Fed Chair Jerome Powell, after reports suggested that the latter would be present at a Supreme Court hearing regarding President Trump’s powers to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

“I actually think that’s a mistake. If you’re trying not to politicize the Fed, for the Fed chair to be sitting there trying to put his thumb on the scale, that’s a mistake,” he said during the interview.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Tuesday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was down 1.39%; the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell 1.69%; and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) declined 1.32%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bearish’ territory.

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) was down by 0.15% at the time of writing.

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