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Deutsche Bank expects the company’s first-quarter deliveries to be in the range of 340,000 to 350,000, much below the 386,810 deliveries reported in the corresponding quarter of 2024.
Shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA) drew investor attention on Friday after Deutsche Bank lowered the its price target on the stock to $345 from $420 while keeping a ‘Buy’ rating on the shares.
Deutsche Bank expects the company’s first-quarter (Q1) deliveries to be in the range of 340,000 to 350,000, but below consensus of 398,000 units. Auto margin will be under greater pressure owing to the lower delivery numbers, the brokerage said, as per TheFly.
Deutsche Bank also reset volume expectations for the full year based on weaker demand trends and a slower launch cadence for a cheaper vehicle model.
For the full year, the firm now models Tesla's deliveries declining 5% year-over-year to 1.7 million, assuming a staggered rollout for its cheaper electric vehicle starting in the U.S., and then Europe, and China.
The firm said that Tesla shares have been under pressure, driven by much weaker auto volumes, a broader de-rating in growth assets, and political uncertainty.
"Rarely anything at Tesla happens in a straight line and we would not expect robotaxi or humanoid to be linear," the firm added.
RBC Capital on Friday said that it expects first quarter deliveries at 364,000 units, higher than Deutsche’s estimates.
The brokerage noted that the company’s deliveries in the first two months of the year were impacted by shutdowns to prepare for the production of its refreshed Model Y vehicle.
RBC Capital has an ‘Outperform’ rating on the shares with a $320 price target.
In the first quarter of 2024, Tesla delivered 386,810 vehicles globally, including 17,027 units of its higher-end Model S, X, and Cybertruck vehicles.
For 2024, the company reported global deliveries of 1.79 million vehicles, down from full-year deliveries of 1.81 million in 2023, marking the first decline in over a decade.
Tesla said in January that its plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain “on track” for the start of production in the first half of 2025. The company has not provided more details on the new vehicles since.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment about Tesla jumped from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’ territory (77/100) while message volume remained at ‘normal’ levels over the past 24 hours.
A Stocktwits user, however, expressed pessimism about the shares, expecting it to fall below $220.
Tesla shares are down over 25% this year but have gained over 50% in the past 12 months.
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