Tesla, SpaceX Stocks Rise Overnight: Elon Musk Fuels Merger Speculation, ‘Hints’ At Action Amid ‘Close Collaboration’

Jefferies sees strategic logic in a deal and estimates Musk could retain 55.3% voting control without a merger premium.

• When asked why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate, Musk called it a “great question” and pointed to their “close collaboration” across multiple areas.
• JPMorgan called a tie-up “strategically coherent on paper,” citing AI, robotics, energy, transportation and space.
• Shotwell said Musk’s businesses were integrating “faster than I thought,” though they were “not fully integrated yet.”

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) edged higher overnight heading into Tuesday after CEO Elon Musk declined to rule out merging the companies, reigniting a theory that has spread from retail investors to Wall Street.

When asked at the All-In Summit why Tesla and SpaceX remain separate despite their growing ties, Musk called it a “great question” and hinted that their relationship could eventually prompt action. “With all this collaboration, on so many levels, who can imagine what action one might take when there’s so much close collaboration in so many areas,” he said.

TSLA and SPCX each fell about 2% on Monday before edging 0.2% and 0.1% higher in overnight trading. 

Wall Street Weighs Tesla-SpaceX Merger 

The Tesla-SpaceX merger debate began largely with prominent retail investors modeling possible ownership structures, exchange ratios and valuations. It has since drawn attention from Jefferies and JPMorgan.

Jefferies said it sees strategic logic in combining the companies. Its framework estimated that Musk could retain about 55.3% voting control under a deal completed without a merger premium, potentially leaving room for Tesla shareholders to receive one. JPMorgan separately called a merger “strategically coherent on paper,” pointing to potential integration across artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, transportation and space.

Tesla And SpaceX Ties Deepen 

Tesla and SpaceX remain legally separate, but their operations increasingly intersect.

Tesla supplies expertise in batteries, power systems, manufacturing and AI. SpaceX contributes launch capacity, Starlink connectivity, satellite infrastructure and experience operating complex engineering programs at enormous scale.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said at the All-In Summit that SpaceX personnel had also moved into xAI to fill leadership and engineering gaps. The teams were integrating “faster than I thought,” she said, although the businesses were “not fully integrated yet.”

Shotwell also pointed to collaboration on AI, compute and solar-panel production. SpaceX plans to launch AI-computing satellites, while Musk’s companies are working across chips, energy, data centers and manufacturing. Tesla’s autonomous vehicles and Optimus robots need AI computing, energy storage and reliable connectivity. SpaceX needs batteries, solar power, chips and large-scale manufacturing for Starlink, Starship and its upcoming orbital-computing network.

Roadster Teaser Fuels Merger Buzz

Tesla recently announced an Oct.1 unveiling for its next-generation Roadster using the phrase “Go for launch,” signaling a clear nod to SpaceX’s rocket missions. The Roadster was first unveiled in November 2017 and has faced years of delays. 

The EV maker has frequently used high-profile product events to generate attention, and Musk has previously discussed ambitious performance targets for the Roadster, including possible rocket-assisted features. 

How Do Retail Traders Feel About TSLA And SPCX?

On Stocktwits, sentiment was ‘extremely bearish’ for TSLA and ‘bearish’ for SPCX, with both seeing ‘normal’ message volume. 

Over the past year, TSLA has fallen 9% and SPCX has declined 8%. 

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