Tesla-SpaceX Merger Speculation Heats Up As Analysts Clash Ahead Of SpaceX IPO

Oppenheimer analysts argued that keeping the two companies separate would better support Elon Musk’s long-term artificial intelligence ambitions.

• While Oppenheimer acknowledged that a combination remains “plausible,” it does not expect a near-term merger. 
• In contrast, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has been one of the most bullish voices on a potential merger.
• SpaceX is slated to begin trading on Nasdaq on Friday.

Oppenheimer on Thursday reportedly pushed back against growing speculation of a potential merger between Elon Musk’s rocket maker SpaceX and EV giant Tesla Inc, hinting that the market is still divided on the subject

Oppenheimer analysts argued that keeping the two companies separate would better support Elon Musk’s long-term artificial intelligence ambitions, as reported by Investing.com. They noted that Musk’s vision “is best served by diversified, flexible access to capital” and that “having two public currencies supports that strategy most effectively.”

While the firm acknowledged that a combination remains “plausible,” it does not expect a near-term merger. Instead, Oppenheimer anticipates that supply chain synergies between Tesla and SpaceX — particularly in energy storage, servers, and data infrastructure — will expand in the coming years ahead of any potential transaction.

Oppenheimer highlighted Tesla’s stationary storage business as a key near-term beneficiary of the SpaceX IPO, the report said. The firm believes Tesla’s energy storage capabilities will play an important role in supporting SpaceX’s power and computing needs for data centers. As a result, it raised its energy storage sales forecasts by 2% for the remainder of 2026 and by 3% for both 2027 and 2028.

On the vehicle side, Oppenheimer increased its sales forecasts by 4% across 2026–2028, citing elevated oil prices that improve the total cost of ownership for electric vehicles. However, the firm remains cautious on the timelines for full commercialization of autonomous driving and humanoid robots, pointing to FSD V15 as the next important milestone to watch.

Not All Are On Board With Oppenheimer

In contrast, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has been one of the most bullish voices on a potential merger. Ives has repeatedly stated that he sees an 80% to 90% probability that Tesla and SpaceX will combine in 2027, after SpaceX completes its IPO.

He has described such a merger as the “holy grail” for Musk, as it would allow him to better own and control the broader AI ecosystem. Ives has pointed to existing operational connections between the two companies, including the joint Terafab facility in Austin, as evidence that the groundwork for integration is already being laid.

Taking a more skeptical view is veteran investor Steven Eisman. Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box earlier this week, Eisman said he wouldn’t be surprised if Musk eventually uses SpaceX stock to acquire or merge with Tesla. However, he made it clear that he believes such a move would be highly unattractive for SpaceX shareholders. Eisman argued that combining the two companies would likely hurt the stronger SpaceX business, as Tesla operates in a highly competitive and capital-intensive EV market.

“If I was a SpaceX shareholder, the last thing I’d want would be for him to buy Tesla,” he said.

The speculation for a Tesla-SpaceX merger began when Musk merged his AI startup company xAI with SpaceX earlier this year. SpaceX’s IPO announcement aggravated the speculation of Musk consolidating his different companies under one roof. SpaceX will start trading on the NASDAQ on Friday. The company priced the IPO at $135 per share to raise $75 billion, implying a $1.77 trillion valuation. Tesla, meanwhile, has a market capitalization of $1.25 trillion, giving the two companies a combined valuation of about $3 trillion.  

How Did Tesla Retail Traders React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around TSLA stock stayed within the bearish territory, while message volume stayed at normal levels

TSLA stock closed up 5% on Thursday after closing in the red for two consecutive days.

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