SPHR Stock Slapped With Downgrade As 'Wizard Of Oz' Interest Cools, But Retail Is 'Extremely Bullish'

Despite a sharp stock drop, retail sentiment around Sphere Entertainment has improved.

• Craig-Hallum downgraded Sphere Entertainment to Hold and cut its price target to $132 from $170.
• Sphere said “Wizard of Oz” has generated over $500 million in ticket sales.
• Sphere Entertainment’s Q2 revenue rose 11% to $313.6 million, but losses widened.  

Shares of Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) tumbled nearly 14% on Monday, their worst day in over a year, after a Wall Street analyst downgraded the stock and said demand for one of the venue's major flagship experiential productions is cooling faster than expected.

Sphere Entertainment stock closed at $110.80 and inched up 0.6% in overnight trading.

Craig-Hallum Sees No Meaningful Demand Increase At Sphere

Craig-Hallum analyst Ryan Sigdahl downgraded Sphere Entertainment to 'hold' from 'buy,' according to a summary of the note on The Fly, and lowered his price target to $132 from $170, citing "faster-than-expected" weakening in demand for “The Wizard of Oz”. The new target still implies 19% upside from Monday's close.

Sigdahl said recent numbers show the updated version of the show, released Sept. 25, has not meaningfully increased demand. He also plans to cut his financial estimates, citing deteriorating demand trends.

The update added 4D effects including moving Winged Monkeys, scents, fireworks, and "Glinda Glitter." The show has been running in Las Vegas since Aug. 28, 2025.

Last month, Sphere said the attraction has generated more than $500 million in ticket sales, with more than 4 million tickets sold since its debut.

According to multiple reports, tickets for “The Wizard of Oz” at Sphere in Las Vegas generally range from $96 to $349 depending on your seat location, package tier, and showtime.

Higher Costs Weigh On Sphere Entertainment’s Profit 

Sphere reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $313.6 million in August, up 11% from a year earlier. Its operating loss widened to $61.3 million from $50.2 million, and adjusted operating income declined 17% to $50.9 million. The loss per share was $1.07.

Revenue from the Sphere business climbed 29% to $226.4 million. The increase was largely driven by higher revenue from “The Wizard of Oz,” which recorded 220 performances during the quarter. 

Higher revenue came with increased costs. Sphere-related operating expenses rose 15%, while selling, general and administrative expenses increased 30%. Sphere Entertainment stock has been posting monthly losses since July. 

What SPHR Retail Traders Are Saying 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPHR improved to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ the previous day. Message volume has surged 700% over the past year, with a 13.7% gain in watchers.

American heavy metal band Metallica is performing a 24-show concert residency, “Life Burns Faster,” at the Sphere in Las Vegas from Oct. 1, 2026, through March 13, 2027. According to Rolling Stone magazine, tickets for the shows have "sold out quickly," making SPHR retail traders even more bullish.

One user said, “Metallica tickets are going for $2,000 each.   Yeah. Go ahead and short this.”

Another user said, “24% of the float is short at only around 35 million shares, primed for squeeze.”

SPHR stock has fallen every month since July but has gained more than 16% year to date, maintaining its lead over entertainment peers such as Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery and Disney.

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