SPCX Stock Under Pressure As Retail Frets Over Another Lockup Release — A Secret Space Force Deal Looms

SpaceX reportedly gained access to sensitive Space Force tracking data through an agreement involving its Stargaze system, raising concerns among rivals.

• Up to 328 million shares become eligible for sale Thursday under SpaceX’s staggered IPO lockup.
• Morgan Stanley reiterated its 'Overweight' rating but said SpaceX is unlikely to threaten major U.S. wireless carriers’ core markets soon.
• Investors are also watching Starship Flight 14’s Sept.28 orbital attempt and the delayed Crew-13 launch targeted for Oct.1.

Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) face a fresh test of investor confidence after its sharpest selloff in nearly two months on Wednesday, with up to 328 million shares becoming eligible for sale as details emerge of an agreement giving the company access to sensitive Space Force tracking data.

SPCX stock fell 4% to $148.36 on Wednesday and is down 3% for the week, putting it on track to snap a four-week winning streak. 

Another Share Unlock Tests SPCX Retail Nerves

The latest lockup release follows a June IPO structured to let employees and early investors sell portions of their holdings in stages. The newly eligible shares could expand the stock’s tradable supply. The prospectus permits another 7% of the standard lockup pool to be released 105 days after its June 12 date. 

Further tranches are scheduled for Oct.9 and Oct.24, followed by a larger release after third-quarter results. CEO Elon Musk’s shares are subject to a separate, longer lockup.

Retail caution was visible before Wednesday’s drop. Stocktwits sentiment on SPCX slipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘neutral’ levels a day ago as message volume jumped 74% over 24 hours. One user called SPCX’s drop a day before Thursday’s unlock “standard.” Another questioned why anyone would buy ahead of the release, pointing to proposed sales by senior executives and calling the stock “clearly overvalued” with a “very sketchy future.” 

A recent regulatory filing added to the focus on insider activity: SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell gave notice of a proposed sale of 342,170 shares worth nearly $52 million. The shares fall within a trading plan adopted in June.

Space Force Data Deal Puts Stargaze In Focus

The stock’s supply overhang comes as SpaceX reportedly has an agreement with the Space Force’s Joint Commercial Operations Cell to exchange observations from its Starlink-mounted Stargaze cameras for access to detailed government data on objects in orbit. The data could help SpaceX track debris and protect its satellite fleet.

A Space Force official apparently said that the government data is restricted to SpaceX’s internal use and cannot be used for commercial gain. Rivals reportedly worry that access could nevertheless improve Stargaze’s free tracking services for other satellite operators, giving SpaceX an edge they cannot match.

SpaceX Faces A Busy Launch Calendar 

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley reiterated its ‘Overweight’ rating on SpaceX, while downplaying a nearer-term threat from the largest U.S. wireless carriers. The bank said SpaceX would have “limited ability to access significant swaths of critical mid-band spectrum in urban areas,” meaning a potential mobile virtual network operator agreement could still be years away.

As part of other near-term catalysts for SPCX stock, Starship Flight 14, targeted for Sept. 28 pending approval, is set to attempt the rocket’s first orbital insertion and deploy 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites.

SpaceX is now targeting Oct.1 to launch NASA’s Crew-13 mission, which was delayed after an oxidizer leak was found in the Crew Dragon spacecraft. Separately, NASA added three future crew missions worth a combined $946 million to its SpaceX contract. Beyond its launch and satellite businesses, Grok Bot reportedly reached about 418,000 weekly users as of Sept.14, keeping SpaceX’s AI operations in investors’ sights even as heavy spending remains a concern.

SPCX stock has declined 8% over the past six months. 

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