SPCX Stock Jumps Overnight After Stellar Debut: Musk Predicts $1 Trillion Revenue By 2030, But Analyst Sees Major Hurdles

Morningstar expects SpaceX's first earnings report in late July or early August to be the stock's "first key test."

• Elon Musk said SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 and exceed the level in 2031.
• A major lockup expiration will occur after earnings, with restricted shareholders able to sell about 7% of outstanding stock.
• Morningstar said investors will be focused on Starlink growth and Starship spending as part of its earnings watch.

Elon Musk is already setting the bar higher for newly public SpaceX (SPCX). Days after SPCX surged 19% in its record IPO debut, Musk expects the company to generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, but analysts say major tests lie ahead.

SPCX stock jumped 4% in overnight trading heading into Monday. 

Musk Sees $1 Trillion Revenue By 2030

"I think SpaceX might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030," Musk said in a post on X. In a follow-up post, the billionaire doubled down on the forecast: "And I would be surprised if revenue is not greater than $1T in 2031." 

The comments came after SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history, raising $75 billion and debuting at a valuation of $1.77 trillion. The company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 per share, with the stock closing its first trading session at $160.95 after climbing as high as $176.52 intraday. The blockbuster debut turned SpaceX into the sixth-most valuable public company in the U.S. and made Musk the world's richest person.

The debut provided reassurance to a broader market largely driven by enthusiasm for AI infrastructure investments. Demand for the IPO was so strong that SpaceX reportedly reduced its retail allocation from as much as 30% of the offering to closer to 20% before pricing. The company also structured the offering with a relatively small float and tiered lockup restrictions, helping to limit the available supply of shares and support trading during its debut session.

Musk also weighed in on what it would take to become humanity's first quadrillionaire. Responding to a post noting that he would need another $998.9 trillion to reach the milestone, Musk said: "Not impossible, but definitely requires factories on the Moon and Mars to achieve." He also added: "By then, I don't think dollars will be used as currency. Just mass and energy."

Morningstar's Case Against SpaceX

Despite the stock's strong debut, Morningstar, which has been the most bearish on SpaceX, believes the rocket company may have already priced in an overly optimistic future. The research firm still estimates the company is worth $780 billion, or about $63 per share, which is well below its $1.77 trillion IPO valuation and $135 offering price.

Morningstar said last week that even highly favorable assumptions struggle to support the current valuation: "Even giving SpaceX the benefit of the doubt in several key forecasts, only the most optimistic 'moonshot' scenario approaches the IPO offering price," the firm said. However, the research firm acknowledged that market factors could continue boosting the stock in the near term.

"With a small initial float boosted by almost every investment bank on the planet, buoyant investor appetite for AI infrastructure bids, and an unprecedented path to inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index just 15 trading days after the IPO, we expect SpaceX's share price will likely survive separation and even ascend toward orbit, at least for a time," Morningstar said.

The Next Hurdle: Earnings And Insider Selling

SpaceX is expected to report second-quarter results in late July or early August. According to Morningstar, earnings will likely represent the stock's "first key test." The research firm said that investors should focus on two areas in particular: Starlink subscriber growth and Starship spending. "Starlink is the biggest revenue and profit driver for the company right now," Morningstar said. Meanwhile, R&D spending could provide insight into how much SpaceX still needs to spend before Starship goes commercial. 

Earnings could also trigger a major test of supply for SPCX stock. According to SpaceX's amended S-1 filing, restricted shareholders can begin selling shares two days after the company's first earnings report. The initial unlock alone represents about 7% of outstanding shares, which is "more than the IPO," Morningstar noted. Additional insider shares, including portions of Musk's 50% stake, are set to become eligible for sale over the following months. 

"Investors in SpaceX should be aware that in the coming year, insider selling is very likely to greatly increase the supply of shares, so depending on the ongoing level of demand in the market, it could add to the volatility of SpaceX's stock," Morningstar warned. However, growing index-fund ownership could help absorb some of the additional supply as SpaceX's float expands, Morningstar said.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SpaceX has been ‘extremely bullish’ over the past month amid a 28,300% surge in message volume over the past week. However, a recent Stocktwits poll of 19,000 voters found that 53% believe SPCX will underperform the S&P 500 over the next five years.

One user said, “$SPCX is headed over $200 tomorrow.”

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On the other hand, a bearish user said, “Indexes will be required to buy, but want cheaper shares. You will see a pull back, like every other IPO.”

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