SPCX, ASTS, RKLB And FLY On Watch: Goldman Sachs Sees $1.8 Trillion Space Economy And Rising M&A Wave

Companies controlling launch and orbital infrastructure could capture “disproportionate value,” the research firm said.

• Goldman Sachs expects the global space economy to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035.
• The research firm said expanding public-market activity could fuel space-sector M&A and consolidation.
• ASTS is seeking greater launch control, while Firefly deepened vertical integration by acquiring Space-ng.

SpaceX (SPCX), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Firefly Aerospace (FLY) are in focus after Goldman Sachs said the global space economy could reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, with public capital and vertical integration potentially fueling consolidation.

On Wednesday, SPCX surged 10%, ASTS climbed 4%, and RKLB and FLY each gained 1%. 

Goldman Sachs Sees Space M&A Wave

In its August report released Wednesday, The Second Space Age, the Goldman Sachs Global Institute called space “a new pillar of the industrial economy” and identified launch as the sector’s upstream “chokepoint.”

“As space companies increasingly enter public markets, capital markets activity is expected to intensify,” Goldman said. “This may drive a rise in M&A activity and support the evolution of space as an institutional asset class.” Companies controlling launch, manufacturing, orbital infrastructure and space-derived data could capture “disproportionate value,” the report said.

“As space becomes more economically central, access to capital will become a competitive advantage in its own right,” Goldman added.

SpaceX And Rocket Lab Chase Full-Stack Scale

SpaceX already combines launch, satellites and services through Falcon, Starship and Starlink. Starlink added more than 1.7 million net consumer subscribers during the second quarter (Q2), its strongest quarterly increase, while enterprise and government revenue more than doubled. “I think people are really underestimating Starlink here,” CEO Elon Musk said. “This is a big deal.”

Rocket Lab is pursuing a similar model through its planned Iridium acquisition, which would add a 66-satellite network, more than 2.5 million subscribers and over $870 million in annual revenue.

“In short, Rocket Lab will become a self-launching tier 1 space power,” CEO Peter Beck said. Rocket Lab posted record quarterly revenue of $234 million and a $2.36 billion backlog. Neutron remains targeted for fourth-quarter pad delivery, although “the window for an end-of-year launch is narrowing.”

ASTS And Firefly Deepen Vertical Integration

AST SpaceMobile is building a direct-to-smartphone BlueBird network and exploring ways to secure greater control over launch access. It works with more than 60 mobile operators covering over 3 billion subscribers and targets 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027.

AST has also signaled interest in partnerships and acquisitions that could reduce its reliance on third-party launch providers. A $1.15 billion convertible-note offering in July lifted its pro forma cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash above $3.7 billion. Management said the financing provides flexibility to pursue further vertical integration and secure additional access to orbit.

Meanwhile, Firefly recently acquired Space-ng, adding AI-powered navigation and autonomous guidance technology for its Blue Ghost landers and Elytra spacecraft. “This acquisition vertically integrates a key capability on a cost-neutral basis,” CFO Darren Ma said.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS, RKLB, SPCX And FLY?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘extremely bullish’ for RKLB and SPCX and ‘bullish’ for ASTS and FLY. Message volume was ‘high’ for ASTS, RKLB and SPCX, and ‘extremely high’ for FLY. 

Over the past year, ASTS and RKLB shares have gained 49% and 87%, respectively, while FLY has fallen 48%. SPCX stock has declined 9% over the past three months. 

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