SpaceX Lockup Expiry: Morgan Stanley Believes ‘Largely Unchanged’ Fundamentals Create Attractive Entry Point At Current Levels

Morgan Stanley said that while many investors expect SpaceX shares to fall to $100 as IPO lock-up restrictions expire, such a valuation would imply little or no value for the company’s AI business.

• Analyst Adam Jonas reiterated the firm’s ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock, describing SpaceX as ‘uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI.’
• Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens stated that a ‘wave’ of selling is likely once the lockup period expires.
• The Elon Musk-led firm is expected to post its quarterly results on August 4, with revenue estimated at $6.8 billion and a loss of $0.22 per share, according to Fiscal.ai.

Morgan Stanley believes the ‘disconnect’ between the growing bearish sentiment and SpaceX’s (SPCX) ‘largely unchanged’ fundamentals offers an attractive entry point at current levels, ahead of the upcoming lockup expiration.

At the time of writing, SPCX shares were trading 4.7% lower and are heading towards their third straight weekly decline.

Morgan Stanley Reiterates $300 Price Target Amid Lock-Up Expiry Selloff Fears

The brokerage said many investors expect SpaceX shares to fall to $100 as initial public offering (IPO) lock-up restrictions begin expiring, allowing early shareholders to sell their stakes. Lock-ups are periods when early investors are restricted from selling shares immediately after a company goes public. SpaceX’s lock-up will expire on Aug. 6, 2026.

However, if the stock does crash to $100, Morgan Stanley said it would be pricing in little or no value for its AI business while also undervaluing its space launch and connectivity businesses.

Analyst Adam Jonas reiterated the firm’s ‘Overweight’ rating on the stock as well as the $300 price target, describing SpaceX as “uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI.” The estimated price implies a 166% upside potential from current levels.

Meanwhile, Morningstar’s analyst Nicolas Owens stated that a ‘wave’ of selling is likely. “We believe that most of the available shares will come to market, because the existing sellers have low-cost basis and long holding periods,” Owens said in a report on Friday.

HSBC's Take On SPCX

Earlier on Friday, HSBC initiated coverage with a ‘Hold’ rating and a $115 price target. While the firm remains cautious about valuing long-term opportunities such as space-based data centers and the lunar economy, it said SpaceX remains the clear leader in commercial space launches, supported by its strong execution, technological leadership, and expanding space ecosystem.

SpaceX shares debuted at $135 on June 12, surged above $225 during its first week of trading, but have since fallen more than 50% from their peak.

On August 4, the firm is expected to post its first quarterly results since going public, with revenue estimated at $6.8 billion and a loss of $0.22 per share, according to Fiscal.ai.

Retail Expects SPCX To Decline Further

Retail sentiment surrounding SPCX on Stocktwits remained ‘bearish’ over the past 24 hours, amid ‘high’ message volumes.

One user believes there would be “endless selling pressure” once the lock-up period expires.

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Another user said the stock isn’t worth buying until it hits $50 early next year “once all insider shares unlock and sell off.”

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The stock has shed over 30% since its debut session.

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