SOFI Stock Is Sliding — But Retail Bulls Bet Big On Q4 Beat, S&P 500 Inclusion To Turn Things Around

Trump’s student-loan curbs and talk of a credit card rate cap could funnel borrowers toward fintech lenders like SoFi.

• The results before the opening bell on Friday could be the first time SoFi reports nearly $1 billion in quarterly revenue.
• According to a Stocktwits poll, 65% out of the 6,600 voters expect SoFi to beat Wall Street expectations on earnings per share and revenue.
• Earlier this month, SoFi stock rose after Trump’s comments on capping credit card interest rates, which could benefit fintech lenders and buy now, pay later providers.

SoFi Technologies Inc. shares closed lower for a fifth consecutive session on Thursday, falling as much as 1% ahead of the company’s quarterly earnings report. Investors are looking to the results for clarity on SoFi’s member growth trajectory, potential progress toward inclusion in the S&P 500, and management’s commentary on the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed credit card interest rate policies.

According to a Stocktwits poll, 65% out of the 6,600 voters expect SoFi to beat Wall Street expectations on earnings per share and revenue, while 10% expect a profit beat and revenue miss. On the other hand, 10% expect a profit miss and revenue beat, and 15% anticipate a miss on both earnings per share and revenue.

The upcoming results on Friday before the bell could be the first time that SoFi will be reporting nearly $1 billion in revenue, as Wall Street expects the company to benefit from continued demand for personal loans and its efforts to give expanded access to alternative investments to include new private market funds from asset management firms, including Cashmere and Fundrise.

SoFi 2025 Stock Move

SoFi’s stock soared 70% in 2025, benefiting from the Trump Administration’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act (OBBBA) as well as on chatter regarding an inclusion in the S&P 500 Index.

Trump’s OBBBA passed the Senate on July 1, which restricts federal borrowing for graduate and professional students. That is expected to drive more people to turn to private loans and boost the portfolios of companies such as SoFi.

Recently, the company also saw a boost from U.S. President Donald Trump’s comments on capping credit card interest rates, which could benefit fintech lenders and buy now, pay later (BNPL) providers.

In January, Trump said that he was weighing a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates, calling current rates of 20% to 30% unreasonably high. Mizuho Securities said that this rate cap would push banks to tighten lending standards, especially for lower-credit borrowers, and if implemented, the policy could reduce access to traditional credit cards and drive consumers toward alternative lenders such as Affirm Holdings and SoFi Technologies.

Earnings Snapshot

Wall Street expects SoFi’s quarterly revenue to rise 34% to $$990.93 million and earnings per share to come in at $0.12 compared to $0.29 a year ago, according to data compiled by Fiscal AI.

Analysts on average have a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock, with six analysts rating it ‘Buy’ or higher, 11 rating it ‘Hold,’ and five having ‘Sell’ or lower rating, according to Koyfin. The average price target on SoFi is $27.11, implying a 11% upside to the last close of $24.36.

What Is Retail Thinking?

Retail sentiment on SoFi improved to ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish’ territory a month ago, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

In the seven days leading up to earnings, retail message volume on Stocktwits jumped 187%, and over the past year, the ticker saw a nearly 17% spike in followers.

A bullish user on Stocktwits said that, irrespective of the company’s results on Friday, inclusion in the S&P 500 should push the stock up more than $40.

Shares of SoFi have jumped more than 54% in the last 12 months.

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