RKLB, LUNR, RDW Jump Premarket As Musk Pitches AI Satellites, Orbital Data Centers — Analyst Says The Odds Are Just 7%

Morningstar said SpaceX's bull-case "Moonshot" scenario, involving successful orbital data centers and AI satellites, has only a 7% chance of materializing.

• Investors cheered Elon Musk's vision for AI satellites, orbital data centers and Moon-based manufacturing.
• Musk unveiled an "AI 1" satellite concept capable of 150 kilowatts of peak power and 120 kilowatts of sustained compute.
• He also said that SpaceX aims to increase annual payload deliveries from 2,500 tons to millions of tons.

Shares of space stocks rose overnight heading into Tuesday as investors cheered Elon Musk's vision for AI satellites, orbital data centers and Moon-based manufacturing ahead of SpaceX's highly anticipated Nasdaq debut this week.

In overnight trading, Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) and Redwire (RDW) gained 3%, Firefly Aerospace (FLY), , Sidus Space (SIDU), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) added 2% each, and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) edged up 0.2%. 

SpaceX IPO Lifts Space Trade

SpaceX is expected to price its IPO at $135 per share on June 11 and begin trading the next day, raising $75 billion and valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. The company could become one of the largest U.S.-listed firms, with additional demand expected from passive funds after MSCI confirmed it would apply its existing fast-entry rules for large IPOs.

The space sector has been volatile ahead of the listing, with some investors questioning SpaceX's lofty valuation after the company reported a $4.94 billion net loss in 2025. Others have focused on opportunities highlighted in the IPO filing, where SpaceX called a $28.5 trillion opportunity spanning launch services, Starlink connectivity, direct-to-cell communications and AI infrastructure.

Musk Unveils AI Satellite Vision

During a recent SpaceX presentation, Musk unveiled an "AI 1" satellite concept that can provide 150 kilowatts of peak power and 120 kilowatts of sustained compute capacity, connected through Starlink's laser-linked network. "The AI satellite is actually much simpler than a Starlink satellite," Musk said, adding that future systems would mainly consist of solar cells, radiators, AI chips and laser links.

SpaceX said that the satellites could initially use Nvidia GB300 or Rubin chips, with each spacecraft functioning as a rack of AI compute in orbit. Musk said that space-based computing could eventually solve power and cooling constraints facing terrestrial data centers. "We'll be aiming to go from somewhere around 2,500 tons a year to orbit to millions of tons," Musk said, adding that future Starships could eventually fly more than once per hour. Musk also laid out a roadmap involving gigawatts and eventually terawatts of space-based compute, supported by a proposed 100-million-square-foot Terra Fab chip manufacturing complex and, ultimately, Moon-based production of solar arrays and radiators.

Morningstar's New Bear Case On SpaceX

In a fresh bearish note late Monday, Morningstar said SpaceX's valuation already assumes success in tech that remains unproven:  "We value SpaceX at $63 per share, a 53% discount to the upcoming IPO's offering price," the firm said. Morningstar said its valuation depends heavily on two major assumptions: rapidly reusable Starship rockets and commercially viable orbital data centers.

"Neither of these engineering problems has been solved, and we don't expect them to be until at least 2028," the note said. Under its most optimistic "Moonshot" scenario, SpaceX successfully commercializes orbital AI infrastructure, deploys 59,000 AI satellites and generates $225 billion in annual revenue from 11.6 gigawatts of computing capacity. That scenario implies a valuation of $154 per share.

"We give the optimistic Moonshot scenario a 7% chance of happening," the firm said. Its base-case "Minimum Viable Product" scenario assumes orbital data centers work but achieves more limited adoption, generating $47 billion in annual revenue from 2.4 gigawatts of computing capacity.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About Space Stocks?

On Stocktwits, SpaceX drew 'extremely bullish' sentiment amid 'extremely high' message volume. Sentiment for RKLB and FLY was 'bearish' amid 'low' message volume, LUNR was 'neutral' with 'low' activity. RDW sentiment was 'bullish' sentiment amid 'normal' chatter. 

Over the past year, RKLB has gained 293%, LUNR has risen 154%, RDW is up 1%, while FLY has fallen 40%. 

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