RIOT Stock Sees Downgrade On ‘Substantial’ Anthropic Reliance: HUT, MARA Shares See Price Target Cuts

Keefe Bruyette cut RIOT stock to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’, citing its “substantial” reliance on Anthropic and the lack of investment-grade credit support for the lease.

• Keefe Bruyette raised its price target on Riot to $23 from $20, but said the company’s next challenges involve financing and construction of its Corsicana data center project.
• The firm lowered its price target on Hut 8 to $81 from $92, citing uncertainty over a Texas groundwater permit for the second phase of Beacon Point.
• JPMorgan cut its price target on MARA to $9 from $11 after the company did not announce a new data center lease in the third quarter.

Shares of Riot Platforms (RIOT), Hut 8 (HUT) and MARA Holdings (MARA) rose in premarket trade on Wednesday amid the neocloud rally sparked by CoreWeave (CRWV) earnings, although analysts lowered their price targets and, in Riot’s case, downgraded the stock. 

The latest calls point to a more cautious assessment of the companies’ AI data-center ambitions, with analysts focusing on tenant credit quality, project financing and permitting risks.

RIOT Stock Gets Downgraded

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods downgraded Riot Platforms to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’, citing the company’s “substantial” reliance on Anthropic as a tenant and the lack of investment-grade credit support behind its lease. 

According to Keefe, Riot’s valuation is increasingly tied to Anthropic’s business performance and financial position.

The firm nevertheless raised its price target to $23 from $20, reflecting the value of Riot’s lease at its Corsicana site in Texas. It said the investment case is now shifting toward financing and construction, where visibility is more limited. With another “transformational” lease unlikely in the near term, Keefe said it sees a more balanced risk-reward profile for the shares at current levels.

RIOT stock rose around 4% in pre-market trade on Wednesday. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the shares shifted to ‘bullish’ from ‘extremely bullish’ over the past day, and chatter dipped to ‘normal’ from ‘high’ levels.

Keefe’s downgrade stands in contrast to Jefferies’ upgrade on Tuesday, in which the firm raised its rating to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’ and more than doubled its price target to $28 from $13, citing Riot’s Corsicana deal as “a reset for the market.”

It also comes ahead of Anthropic’s IPO, which is expected to list sometime next week.

HUT Stock Sees Price Target Cut On Beacon Point Permit Uncertainty

Keefe also lowered its target on Hut 8 to $81 from $92, while reiterating its ‘Outperform’ rating. 

The firm said its price target reduction reflects uncertainty over the timing of a groundwater permit from Texas regulators for the second phase of Hut 8’s Beacon Point project. 

It assigned a 75% probability to approval and said it is still confident the permit will eventually come through. 

HUT stock rose nearly 10% in pre-market trade on Wednesday. However, sentiment around Hut 8 on Stocktwits dipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘bullish’ over the past day and chatter fell to ‘normal’ from ‘high’ levels.

JPMorgan Lowers MARA Price Target After Q3 Results

JPMorgan analyst Richard Choe cut his price target on MARA Holdings to $9 from $11 and maintained an ‘Underweight’ rating following the company’s third-quarter results.

The firm noted that MARA did not announce a data-center lease during the quarter. However, JPMorgan identified the company’s Kearney and Hannibal sites as near-term opportunities for potential development.

MARA posted third-quarter revenue of $164.23 million, down 35% year-on-year and below analyst expectations of $176 million, according to Koyfin. The company reported an adjusted loss of $0.55 per share, wider than the $0.10 loss per share expected by Wall Street.

MARA CFO Salman Khan said on Monday during the earnings call that the company owns and operates about 1 gigawatt (GW) of power capacity and has a roadmap to scale beyond 4 GW.

The company also announced a $500 million share repurchase authorization alongside Q3 2026 financial results.

While others in the sector, like Core Scientific (CORZ), have announced that they are exiting Bitcoin mining entirely, MARA continues to mine the apex cryptocurrency on the side. 

It mined 2,247 BTC in the quarter and increased the mining hash rate by 18%. Overall, MARA holds around 35,177 BTC on its balance sheet, worth $2.6 billion, making it the fifth-biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the U.S.

MARA stock gained 4.5% in pre-market trade, despite the quarterly miss. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the company trended in ‘extremely bullish’ territory, accompanied by ‘high’ levels of chatter.

Bitcoin’s price, meanwhile, stayed flat in the last 24 hours, trading at around $73,700 at the time of writing. Retail sentiment around BTC dropped to ‘extremely bearish’ from ‘bearish’ territory over the past day.

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