QCOM Stock Has Lost 41% In Two Months — Wall Street Turns Cautious After Qualcomm Warns AAPL's Exit Is Accelerating

Qualcomm CFO Akash Palkhiwala said the company expects Apple-related revenue to decline by roughly 50% sequentially from the fourth quarter to the first quarter.

• Palkhiwala added that the shift “accelerates the exit of Apple revenue out of our model,” though he expects growth in Qualcomm's Android business to significantly offset the decline.
• Wells Fargo lowered its price target to $170 from $265, citing a weaker outlook amid softness in China's smartphone market and Apple's faster-than-expected transition to in-house modems.
• Morgan Stanley echoed similar sentiments, while adding that the transition away from Apple is “not seamless,” citing execution risks and meaningful near-term margin dilution.

Shares of Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) remained under pressure on Thursday after the company warned that the decline in revenue from Apple Inc. (AAPL) products is expected to accelerate.

Qualcomm’s fourth-quarter (Q4) earnings forecast also came in lower than expectations, prompting a slew of price target cuts by analysts.

Qualcomm shares were down nearly 5% in Thursday’s opening trade, extending the decline since the beginning of June to about 41%. QCOM was among the top trending tickers on Stocktwits at the time of writing.

Why Wall Street Is Turning Cautious On QCOM

Wall Street analysts broadly lowered their price targets on Qualcomm following the earnings report, pointing to a faster-than-expected loss of Apple’s modem business, weaker guidance and continued margin pressure as key concerns.

Wells Fargo cut its price target to $170 from $265 while maintaining an ‘Equal Weight’ rating.

The firm said that while Qualcomm's third-quarter (Q3) results were largely in line with expectations, its outlook disappointed as the company faces a weaker smartphone market in China and an accelerating shift by Apple to in-house modems for the iPhone 18 cycle.

Morgan Stanley lowered its price target to $220 from $231 and kept an ‘Equal Weight’ rating. The firm said Qualcomm's diversification beyond Apple is progressing faster than expected, but warned the transition is “not seamless,” citing execution risks and meaningful near-term margin dilution.

Analysts at Barclays reduced their price target on Qualcomm shares to $180 from $245 while reiterating an ‘Underweight’ rating.

The firm pointed to weaker Q3 guidance, softer-than-expected data center revenue, ongoing handset volatility and continued cost pressures in smartphones. Barclays added that even after factoring in an estimated $5 billion AI opportunity, it still finds the stock “uninteresting.”

BofA expressed caution about Qualcomm’s rising input costs and lower-margin data center revenue, highlighting that they weighed on the chipmaker’s earnings. The firm also warned that Apple's modem transition is occurring faster than expected, which could continue to pressure Qualcomm's margins and earnings into fiscal 2027.

BofA lowered its price target on Qualcomm to $180 from $220 and maintained an ‘Underperform’ rating.

QCOM Expects AAPL-Related Revenue To Halve From Q4 To Q1

Qualcomm CFO Akash Palkhiwala said the company expects Apple-related revenue to decline by roughly 50% sequentially from Q4 to the first quarter (Q1), reflecting a materially lower modem share in Apple's upcoming iPhone 18 launch than the company's previous estimate of 20%.

Palkhiwala said the change “accelerates the exit of Apple revenue out of our model,” though he added that Qualcomm expects growth in its Android business to significantly offset much of the decline.

Qualcomm reported earnings per share (EPS) of $2.21 on revenue of $9.95 billion in Q3, compared to Wall Street estimates of an EPS of $2.22 on revenue of $9.67 billion, according to Fiscal.ai data.

The company forecast EPS in the range of $2.05 to $2.25 in Q4. At a midpoint of $2.15, it is lower than the consensus estimate of $2.29. The company expects revenue in the $9.7 billion to $10.5 billion range, and at a midpoint of $10.1 billion, it is in line with Wall Street’s estimates.

What Retail Traders Think Of QCOM Stock

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Qualcomm trended in the ‘bullish’ territory at the time of writing.

QCOM stock is down 12% year-to-date, while AAPL stock is up 22%. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 16% over the past 12 months, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is up 20%.

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) and the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) are up 16% during this period.

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