Prediction Markets Are Bracing For A US Government Shutdown – Even As Lawmakers Talk Deal

A vote on a minibus was expected to take place on Thursday, following a deal struck by Senate leaders to fund a large part of the government.

• The minibus package comprised five major funding bills and a stopgap measure to fund the Department of Homeland Security for two weeks.
• However, Sen. Graham announced that there wouldn’t be a vote on Thursday night, according to a report by The Hill.
• Graham objected to language in the minibus package that would repeal a provision that allowed senators to sue if their phone records were collected in connection with former special counsel Jack Smith’s probe.

The U.S. government is staring at another potential shutdown on Saturday, after Senator Lindsey Graham placed a hold on the vote in the Senate late Thursday night.

A vote on a minibus was expected to take place on Thursday, following a deal struck by Senate leaders to fund a large part of the government. The minibus package comprised five major funding bills and a stopgap measure to fund the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for two weeks.

However, Sen. Graham announced that there wouldn’t be a vote on Thursday night, according to a report by The Hill.

Why Did The Senate Not Vote?

Graham opposed language in the minibus package that would repeal a provision that allowed senators to sue if their phone records were collected in connection with former special counsel Jack Smith’s probe.

“I fixed the problem that people had. I’m not going to ignore what happened. If you were abused, you think you were abused, your phone records were illegally seized — you should have your day in court. Every senator should want to make sure this never happens again,” Graham said, according to the report.

Trump Endorses The Deal

In a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump endorsed the deal reached between Senate leaders on Thursday.

“I am working hard with Congress to ensure that we are able to fully fund the Government, without delay. Hopefully, both Republicans and Democrats will give a very much needed Bipartisan “YES” Vote,” he said.

The President also warned that the only thing that could slow the U.S. down is another “long and damaging” government shutdown.

Here’s What Prediction Markets Are Indicating

Despite the optimism among Senate leaders and President Trump, bettors on popular prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, expect the U.S. government to shut down on Saturday.

At the time of writing, odds on Kalshi and Polymarket indicated a 76% likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown.

While total betting volumes on the two platforms stood at over $60 million at the time of writing, the odds in favor of a shutdown surged by 42 and 48 percentage points, respectively, over the past day on the two platforms.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Friday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was down by 0.47%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell 0.68%, and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) declined 0.38%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bearish’ territory.

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) was down by 0.5% at the time of writing, while the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) fell 0.08%.

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