PCE Report: Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Comes In At 2.8% In November
Synopsis
Both PCE and core PCE were in line with analyst forecasts, according to a Wall Street estimate.
- The report also includes delayed October PCE data, which showed that both PCE and core PCE came in at 2.7% on an annualized basis.
- Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, increased 0.3% in November, matching the increase in personal income.
- In absolute terms, personal income increased $80 billion in November, while disposable personal income rose $63.7 billion.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, came in at 2.8% in November on an annualized basis.
According to data from the Commerce Department, core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also stood at 2.8% on an annual basis. It rose 0.2% over the previous month.
Both PCE and core PCE were in line with analyst forecasts, according to a Wall Street estimate as cited by Bloomberg.
The report also includes delayed October PCE data, which showed that both PCE and core PCE came in at 2.7% on an annualized basis.
| Particulars | November 2025 | October 2025 |
| PCE price index (MoM) | +0.2% | +0.2% |
| PCE price index (YoY) | +2.8% | +2.7% |
| Core PCE price index (MoM) | +0.2% | +0.2% |
| Core PCE price index (YoY) | +2.8% | +2.7% |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce<
Consumer Spending Increase Matches Personal Income Gains
Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, increased 0.3% in November, matching the increase in personal income.
In absolute terms, personal income increased $80 billion in November, while disposable personal income rose $63.7 billion. Personal consumption expenditures increased $108.7 billion, while personal outlays increased $107.9 billion during the month.
Personal savings stood at $799.7 billion in November, while the personal saving rate was 3.5%, inching up from 4.6% in August.
Jobless Claims Miss Expectations
Meanwhile, jobless claims rose in the week ended January 17, but came in below market expectations.
Jobless claims rose by 1,000 from the prior week to 200,000, lower than a Dow Jones estimate of 208,000, as cited by MarketWatch.
The four-week moving average for jobless claims, which smooths weekly volatility, fell by 3,750 to 201,500, the lowest level since the start of the past year.
Continuing claims, which refer to the number of people claiming unemployment benefits beyond the first week, stood at 1.85 million for the week ended January 10, decreasing by 26,000 over the previous week.
Meanwhile, U.S. equities gained in Friday’s opening trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up by 0.58%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) gained 0.65%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) rose 0.81%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bearish’ territory.
The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) was down 0.13% at the time of writing.
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