NKE Stock Slips On China Business Strategy ‘Misstep’ And ‘Surprise’ CFO Change Before Earnings

BNP Paribas analyst Laurent Vasilescu called a reported plan by Nike to bar key Chinese distributors from selling products online starting in 2027 a “strategic misstep.”

• BTIG lowered its price target on Nike to $55 from $75 but kept a ‘Buy’ rating ahead of the company’s fiscal Q4 results slated for June 30.
• Citi analyst Paul Lejuez, meanwhile, views the timing of Nike's recent CFO transition, ahead of its Q4 earnings report and fall analyst day, as a surprise.
• Nike said earlier this week that it expected its Q4 results to be generally in line with prior guidance, excluding benefits from tariff refunds that were not previously contemplated.

Shares of Nike Inc. (NKE) fell 2% on Thursday as analysts weighed in on the company’s recent changes in policy and leadership while also reassessing their positions ahead of the company’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings.

The stock has now closed in the red for four consecutive sessions.

China Online Sales Plan Draws Sharp Criticism

BNP Paribas analyst Laurent Vasilescu called a reported plan by Nike to bar key Chinese distributors from selling products online starting in 2027 a “strategic misstep.” The analyst comment follows a report earlier this week from the Chinese news agency Sina claiming Nike plans to restrict key distributors from selling its products online beginning January 1, 2027. Under the reported plan, distributors would no longer be permitted to sell Nike goods on any online platforms, effectively directing consumers to Nike’s official flagship website in China.

Vasilescu said Nike must “clearly explain its intention with respect to China online sales done by its retail partners” on next week’s earnings call. He maintains an ‘Underperform’ rating and $23 price target, which represents a potential downside of about 44% from the stock’s last close.

BTIG Lowers Price Target On Greater China Outlook

BTIG lowered its price target on Nike to $55 from $75 but kept a ‘Buy’ rating ahead of the company’s fiscal Q4 results slated for June 30. The firm expects attention on turnaround progress in Greater China and the durability of North American gains. BTIG forecasts roughly 20% revenue decline in Greater China for the quarter, citing intentional sell-in cuts and faster marketplace cleanup actions. The firm’s new price target, however, represents an upside of about 34.5% from Nike’s Thursday close.

Citi Questions Timing Of CFO Transition

Citi analyst Paul Lejuez, meanwhile, views the timing of Nike's recent CFO transition, ahead of its Q4 earnings report and fall analyst day, as a surprise. The change could delay the analyst day, the analyst told investors in a research note. The firm keeps a ‘Neutral’ rating on the shares with a $47 price target, representing an upside of about 15% from last closing price. The CFO change shows changes are needed to "right the ship," Citi contends.

Earlier this month, Nike announced that David M. Denton, former Pfizer CFO, will become Chief Financial Officer on August 17. Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend will step down the same day but remain through September 4 to complete the transition. Friend is expected to participate in the June 30 earnings call.

Earnings Outlook And Company Guidance

Nike said earlier this week that it expected its Q4 results to be generally in line with prior guidance, excluding benefits from tariff refunds that were not previously contemplated. In March, the company guided for low-single-digit revenue declines through the end of calendar 2026, with continued weakness in Greater China from sell-in reductions and marketplace actions aimed at improving full-price sales. Analysts on average expect revenue to dip to $10.85 billion and earnings per share to fall year-over-year to $0.12 for Q4, according to data from Fiscal AI

Nike’s Q4 earnings come amid ongoing efforts to stabilize the business under CEO Elliott Hill, who took over in late 2024 and has emphasized a “Sport Offense” operating model focused on product innovation, marketplace cleanup, and disciplined execution.

NKE Retail Traders React On Stocktwits

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around Nike stock jumped from 'bearish' to 'neutral' territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at 'high' levels.

A Stocktwits user expressed optimism for the earnings, kicking off the start of a reversal for the stock.

Another user highlighted the stock drop over the past several years. “This kind of multi-year drawdown often reflects more than just sentiment. It points to structural challenges: demand mix, competitive pressure, and margin reset dynamics all happening at the same time,” they said.

NKE shares have fallen by about 35% year-to-date. 

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