NIO Stock Eyes First Green Week In A Month: Deutsche Bank Sees ES8 Drag, But Q2 Breakeven Still In Play

Deutsche Bank still expects Nio to hit Q2 non-GAAP breakeven, forecasting a non-GAAP net profit of 5 million yuan.

• Nio delivered 40,597 vehicles in June, up 63% year-on-year and 8% from May, but below its June guidance range.
• Deutsche Bank attributed the miss mainly to weaker ES8 deliveries, estimating the SUV delivered about 8,900 units in June.
• The bank said some buyers likely waited for the five-seat ES8, while the phaseout of a 10,000 yuan purchase-tax subsidy also hurt demand.

U.S.-listed shares of Nio, Inc. (NIO) are looking to snap a four-week losing streak after Deutsche Bank said that softer ES8 deliveries drove June’s shortfall, while the EV maker’s second-quarter breakeven target remains within reach.

Nio’s U.S.-listed stock snapped three sessions of gains on Wednesday to end 2% lower at $4.97.

Deutsche Bank Flags ES8 Delivery Drag 

Nio delivered 40,597 vehicles in June, up 63% year-on-year and 8% from May. The figure was its strongest monthly total of 2026, but still fell short of the company’s June guidance range of 42,900 to 47,900 vehicles. Second-quarter deliveries hit 107,658 units, up 49% from a year earlier and 29% from the first quarter, but below Nio’s prior guidance of 110,000 to 115,000 vehicles.

Deutsche Bank attributed the miss mainly to the ES8 SUV, estimating June deliveries at about 8,900 units. The bank said that some buyers likely waited for the five-seat ES8, which entered showrooms and opened preorders on June 28, while the phaseout of Nio’s 10,000 yuan purchase-tax subsidy also weighed on demand, according to CnEVPost. 

Nio ES9 Deliveries Jump In June

The weakness was partly offset by newer models. The main Nio brand delivered 21,908 vehicles in June, up 9% month-on-month, while Onvo delivered 11,743 units and Firefly rose 23% to 6,946 units.

Deutsche Bank estimated ES9 deliveries jumped to about 8,000 units in June from 3,108 in May, helped by its first full month on the market. Nio said cumulative ES9 deliveries crossed 10,000 by June 26, and the bank estimates the flagship SUV still has more than 40,000 non-cancellable orders in backlog. The bank also said that dealer checks showed no meaningful cannibalization between ES8 and ES9, given their different positioning. ES8 is aimed at family buyers, while ES9 is marketed more toward business and executive customers.

Deutsche Bank Still Sees Q2 Breakeven

New orders slowed after the ES9 launch surge. Based on Thinkercar data, Deutsche Bank estimates Nio’s June orders fell 8% from May to about 77,000 units, largely as ES9 demand normalized after its post-launch peak. Despite the delivery miss, Deutsche Bank still expects Nio to hit non-GAAP breakeven in the second quarter. The company has guided for vehicle gross margin of 17% to 18%, which the bank sees as achievable due to stronger contribution from the higher-margin ES9.

Deutsche Bank estimates Nio’s overall gross margin slipped 1 percentage point sequentially to 18% and forecasts non-GAAP net profit of 5 million yuan, effectively breakeven.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About NIO?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Nio was ‘neutral’ amid ‘high’ message volume.

One user said, “$NIO Apparently, overpromising makes the stock price drop. Fascinating, because even when NIO over-delivers, the stock still drops. Seems like 63% YoY growth, fueled by best-selling models in the $58,000–$73,000 range, just isn’t impressive enough to justify a share price increase.”

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Another user said, “$NIO A lot of emotion and anxiety out there. Relax. Deliveries moving in the right direction. Shorts feed off panic.”

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Nio’s U.S.-listed shares rose 42% over the past year.

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