Nebius Stock Surges: BNP Paribas Upgrades, Sees $22B ARR By 2027

AI infrastructure demand and capacity expansion drive a sharply higher growth outlook for the neocloud provider.

• BNP Paribas sees Nebius approaching $22 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2027.
• The company’s AI business revenue jumped 514% in Q2 as annualized run-rate revenue reached $3 billion.
• Analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive, while NBIS shares have gained 191% year to date.

Nebius Group N.V.’s stock surged 9% on Thursday and climbed 0.6% overnight as BNP Paribas upgraded the AI cloud infrastructure provider to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ and sharply raised its price target.  

The research firm lifted its target on NBIS to $399 from $260, implying 64% upside, citing an improved outlook after the company’s second-quarter results.

NBIS Stock: BNP Sees Major 2027 Upside

BNP Paribas said its outlook for Nebius has “meaningfully improved” since it initiated coverage in June.

It believes Nebius could approach $22 billion in annual recurring revenue exiting 2027 and that consensus expectations have already moved higher following Nebius’ results. The company’s 2027 guidance could “materially reset” estimates even further, BNP Paribas said.

Nebius reported group revenue of $582 million, up 454%, while its AI business generated $575 million, up 514%. Annualized run-rate revenue reached $3 billion at the end of June.  

Nebius: AI Infrastructure Expansion Accelerates

Nebius has been rapidly expanding its AI cloud infrastructure amid strong demand for cloud services. During its Q2 earnings call, the company said it had effectively sold out of capacity as quickly as new capacity came online.  

The company secured a major long-term cloud contract from Meta in March. More recently, Nebius announced price increases for selected Nvidia GPU instances, and has reportedly hiked prices by roughly 17%-21% starting Oct. 1.

Analyst, Retail View On NBIS

Currently, seven out of 9 analysts rate the stock ‘Buy’ or higher, one rates it ‘Hold’ and one rates it ‘Sell,’ according to Koyfin data. Their average price target of $283.58 implies an over 16% upside from the stock’s last close.

Analyst views have been mixed but largely constructive in September: Truist initiated at ‘Buy’ with a $355 target, Northland reiterated ‘Outperform’ at $410, while Rothschild & Co. Redburn took a contrasting ‘Sell’ view with an $84 target. 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for NBIS was ‘bullish’ as of late Thursday. NBIS stock has surged 191% year to date.

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