MRNA Vs NVAX: Which Vaccine Stock Is Wall Street More Bullish On Right Now?

Regulatory uncertainty remains a common factor for both companies following an FDA memo that raised concerns about vaccine safety.

• Analysts see greater upside in Novavax, while Moderna carries a ‘Hold’ rating despite stronger gains over the past year.
• Moderna was in focus after updated cancer vaccine data, while Novavax drew attention following its Pfizer licensing deal.
• Retail sentiment on Stocktwits was 'extremely bullish' for both stocks, with message activity sharply higher over the past year.

Wall Street is a bit split on Moderna and Novavax, with analysts favoring upside in one name even as the other has outperformed over the past year.

Analysts Favor Novavax Over Moderna

Koyfin data shows analysts assigning greater upside to Novavax than Moderna based on consensus price targets.

Moderna shares were last trading around $49.81 on Wednesday, but Wall Street’s expectations remain cautious. The stock’s average 12-month price target is $37.40, a 25% downside from current levels. Among the 24 analysts covering the company, the overall view sits at ‘Hold’, with two ‘Strong Buy’, two ‘Buy’, 17 ‘Hold’, one ‘Sell’, and two ‘Strong Sell’ ratings, giving Moderna an overall ‘Hold’ rating.

Meanwhile, Novavax last closed at $9.9 on Wednesday, and analysts see room for gains. The stock’s average 12-month price target of $12.89 points to a 30% upside from current levels. Among the nine analysts tracking the company, five rate it ‘Buy’, one ‘Hold’, one ‘Sell’, and two ‘Strong Sell’, giving Novavax an overall ‘Buy’ rating.

Over the past 12 months, Novavax shares have been up about 12%, while Moderna has gained roughly 39%.

Moderna Faces Analyst Caution

On Tuesday, Bank of America Securities raised its price target to $27 from $24 while keeping an ‘Underperform’ rating, implying a 37% downside based on the stock’s prior close near $43.

The update followed the release of five-year follow-up data for Moderna’s personalized cancer vaccine Intismeran Autogene, developed with Merck and used alongside Keytruda in patients with high-risk melanoma. Moderna and Merck said patients receiving the combination showed a 49% lower risk of cancer recurrence or death compared with Keytruda alone. 

Earlier this month, UBS downgraded the stock to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Buy’ and cut its price target to $34 from $40, implying about 32% downside from its last close. 

Moderna expects regulatory approvals this year for a standalone flu vaccine and a COVID-19/flu combination shot, though not in time for the 2026 respiratory season, with a potential boost in 2027. The company also expects key trial data in 2026, including late-stage norovirus results and mid-stage melanoma data. 

Novavax In Focus

This week, Novavax signed a non-exclusive licensing deal with Pfizer for up to two disease areas using its Matrix-M adjuvant. The deal includes a $30 million upfront payment, as well as the possibility of up to $500 million in development and sales milestones, and tiered royalties in the high mid-single-digit range. 

That deal followed Novavax handing over U.S. and European rights to its Covid-19 vaccine candidate Nuvaxovid to Sanofi in November for undisclosed upfront payments and possible milestones. The deal also opens the door to future royalties. Novavax also has deals with Takeda and the Serum Institute of India.

Novavax has pushed its profitability target to 2028 as Covid-19 vaccine demand remains under pressure, while activist investor Shah Capital, which holds about 8.3%, has urged the board to review strategic alternatives, including a potential sale.

Regulatory Backdrop

Uncertainty over regulatory approval also looms for both companies. Shares of Moderna and Novavax fell in December after an FDA memo to staff, which did not name a manufacturer, warned of safety problems with vaccines that could lead to tougher approval standards.

Novavax’s COVID-19 vaccine has full FDA approval with age- and risk-level-based restrictions, while Moderna's COVID-19 vaccines have full licensure across broader age groups.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward Moderna was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume, with watchers up 3% and message activity more than doubling over the past 12 months.

On the other hand, retail sentiment toward Novavax was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume, with watchers up 5% and message activity surging more than 600% over the past 12 months.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<