Moderna Stock Still Worth 37% Less After Cancer Vaccine Data? BofA’s New Price Target Keeps Retail Traders Cautious

BofA Securities said the target hike reflects higher sales expectations, despite logistics challenges.

• BofA lifted its price target to $27 from $24 while keeping an 'Underperform' rating on the shares.
• The update followed the release of five-year follow-up results for the Intismeran vaccine used alongside Keytruda in melanoma patients.
• Moderna and Merck said additional data from the study will be shared at an upcoming medical meeting.

Moderna Inc. shares were in focus on Wednesday after Bank of America Securities (BofA) raised its price target on the stock following new long-term data from the company’s experimental skin cancer vaccine developed with Merck, while keeping a bearish rating in place.

Merck shares rose 0.6% in regular trading before slipping 0.6% after hours, while Moderna climbed 2.8% during the session and edged 0.2% lower in extended trading.

Price Target Raised, Rating Maintained

BofA raised its price target on Moderna to $27 from $24 and reiterated an ‘Underperform’ rating on the shares. However, based on Moderna’s last closing price of $43, the updated target still implies about a 37% downside.

The firm said the increase followed the release of five-year data for Intismeran Autogene, Moderna’s personalized cancer vaccine, used in combination with Merck’s Keytruda in patients with high-risk melanoma.

While noting some upside potential, the brokerage pointed to challenges seen in similar combination treatments in the past, logistical challenges, and a “higher bar for success.” BofA said the higher price target reflects increased sales expectations for the vaccine in patients who have undergone surgery for melanoma.

Five-Year Skin Cancer Results

Moderna and Merck said the latest follow-up showed the vaccine combination continued to help patients remain cancer-free for longer than Keytruda alone.

After five years, patients who received the combination saw a 49% lower risk of the cancer returning or leading to death than those treated with Keytruda by itself. The companies said the findings build on earlier updates shared at the two-year and three-year marks. Moderna and Merck also said they plan to share additional follow-up results at an upcoming medical meeting.

Oncology Pipeline Progress

“Now with five years of follow-up data, today's results highlight the potential of a prolonged benefit of the intismeran autogene and Keytruda combination in patients with resected high-risk melanoma,” said Kyle Holen, Moderna’s head of oncology development.

Holen said the company continues to invest in cancer research and is preparing for several upcoming milestones, including results from a late-stage melanoma study being run with Merck, as well as progress across eight ongoing studies in different cancer types. Meanwhile, Merck’s head of oncology, Marjorie Green, said the long-term results are encouraging for patients at high risk of the disease returning after surgery.

Moderna said it is continuing to expand its cancer treatment work alongside its vaccine business. The company and Merck are currently running or enrolling studies across several cancers, including lung, bladder, kidney, and melanoma, as part of their joint development program for the vaccine.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘neutral’ for Moderna and ‘bearish’ for Merck, with both seeing ‘normal’ message volume.

Moderna’s stock has risen 26% over the past 12 months, while Merck’s stock has jumped 16% over the same period. On Wall Street, analysts are largely neutral on MRNA, according to Koyfin data: 17 out of 24 analysts covering the stock recommend a ‘hold’ rating, while four have a ‘buy’ or ‘strong buy’ conviction, and the rest have a ‘sell’ rating. Their consensus price target of $​​36.75 leaves MRNA trading at a more than 14% premium.

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