Michael Howell Says Bitcoin Outperforms Gold When Fed Liquidity Beats China

Global Liquidity expert Michael Howell expected global liquidity to pick up sooner than his 2027 base case.

• Michael Howell said Bitcoin holding above $70,000 would make him “powerfully change” his view.
• He said Bitcoin “tends to outperform gold when Fed Liquidity grows faster than PBoC Liquidity.”
• Howell warned of “further weakness in coming months” but said Bitcoin “is going to go up because the liquidity cycle is going to turn.”

Macro analyst Michael Howell said on Monday that Bitcoin (BTC) holding above $70,000 could be a “game changer” for his outlook on global liquidity, while explaining that Bitcoin tends to beat gold when the U.S. Federal Reserve adds liquidity faster than China’s central bank.

Speaking on the Bankless podcast, Howell, a global liquidity expert and the Managing Director at GL Indexes, said his base case was still that global liquidity will not bottom until the second half of 2027. However, he said Bitcoin’s recent stability could be an early signal of a turn. 

“If you get Bitcoin holding above 70,000, if you see more evidence that bank reserves are being managed and maybe being pushed up, then I would powerfully change my view and expect to see liquidity picking up,” Howell said. In that case, Bitcoin could be signaling the early stages of “another two to three year bull market,” he added. He stressed, “It’s not my base case.”

Bitcoin was among the top trending crypto tickers on Stocktwits at the time of writing. Howell’s comments came as Bitcoin’s price traded around $79,600 on Monday, nearly 14% above the $70,000 level he flagged. 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

Fed Versus China

Howell said in the interview that Chinese money printing has been the main driver of gold’s rise. “It’d be great to put more money into gold.” he said, adding that “Look at China’s warping great trade surface.” 

Citing Richard Nixon, Howell pointed out that “I mean, we talk about debasement, but broadly speaking, ever since Richard Nixon closed the gold window back in 1971, you effectively had free-floating currencies and ongoing debasement, or certainly accelerated displacement, one would say.” Adding to it he said, “Paradoxically, the U.S. is moving more towards the Chinese model than maybe many people would like, and this is big government, big state.”

Writing on Substack, Howell added that “Bitcoin tends to outperform gold when Fed Liquidity grows faster than PBoC Liquidity,” referring to the People’s Bank of China. He asked whether the Bitcoin-gold ratio was becoming a “scoreboard” for America versus China.

Own Both, Howell Says 

Howell warned that there may be “further weakness in coming months,” but said he would buy on dips. “I think Bitcoin is going to go up because the liquidity cycle is going to turn,” he said. He suggested holding both Bitcoin and gold. “They both work. Why don’t you just own both?” he asked. 

He said he would weigh the mix by volatility, holding more gold for now. As Bitcoin becomes more institutional, “its volatility will come down, and therefore you can increase your weighting over time,” Howell said.

Bitcoin Faces A Key Test

Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone also focused on the Bitcoin-gold ratio. He said Bitcoin “has bounced from its earlier-in-the-year swoon to key inflection levels vs. gold, U.S. Treasury bonds and the S&P 500 (SPX).”

McGlone warned of “greater downside risks” unless Bitcoin “can recover from its relative-dud performer status of almost five years.” His chart shows the ratio near 20, a level he flagged as key, adding that Bitcoin “may need higher stocks” to clear it. He also noted that Bitcoin’s volatility against gold has fallen to “about 1-to-1,” which he called “the lowest ever.” 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<