LUNR Stock’s New Year Thrust Is Being Put To The Test By A Wall Street Downgrade — Retail Watches Cautiously

After a disappointing 2025, Intuitive Machines is regaining altitude this year, even as Wall Street urges caution ahead of a key NASA decision.

• Stifel said that it believes an announcement from NASA on the lunar terrain vehicle contract is imminent.
• The brokerage downgraded Intuitive Machines to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ with a price target of $20, up from $18.
• Intuitive Machines has submitted its proposal for the next phase of NASA’s lunar terrain vehicle services contract.

Intuitive Machines, like many space stocks, failed to gain much traction in 2025, with shares sliding more than 10%. That momentum appears to be turning in the new year, with the stock up 21% so far in 2026 through Thursday's close.

Still, the move pales in comparison to the massive 610% surge the company logged in 2024. Near-term gains could face pressure on Friday after Stifel downgraded Intuitive Machines to 'Hold' from 'Buy', even as it raised its price target to $20 from $18. 

Shares were 2% lower in premarket trading following the analyst note.

Stifel’s View

Stifel said it believes an announcement from NASA on the lunar terrain vehicle contract is imminent. Last year, Intuitive Machines announced it had submitted its proposal for the next phase of NASA’s lunar terrain vehicle services contract to build, fly, and operate the Intuitive Machines-led Moon RACER vehicle on the Moon.

However, Stifel said that an “unpredictable political climate” might introduce new uncertainty on whether the most qualified bid actually wins the competition. The brokerage noted that with Intuitive shares near the price target and “increased nervousness” around the lunar terrain award, Stifel sees a more balanced risk or reward into the news

How Are Stocktwits Users Reacting?

Retail sentiment on Intuitive Machines was in the ‘neutral’ territory, down from ‘extremely bullish’ a month ago, with message volumes at ‘normal’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

A bullish user on Stocktwits said that the downgrade was not a “big deal” and that Stifel could be “playing the conservative route.”

In the last 24 hours alone, Intuitive Machines saw a 30% jump in retail message volumes on Stocktwits and had witnessed a 31% spike in followers on the platform.

Shares of Intuitive Machines have gained nearly 10% in the last 12 months.

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