LUNR Stock Extends Weekly Winning Streak Even As Analysts Slash Targets — Here’s Why

Upcoming catalysts include Golden Dome work, a 2027 lunar mission and NASA’s estimated $10 billion-plus CLPS 2.0 program.

• B. Riley’s $43 target implies 126% upside, while Cantor Fitzgerald’s $32 target suggests 68%.
• Both firms retained bullish ratings despite cutting targets, citing Intuitive Machines’ record $1.8 billion backlog.
• The company reaffirmed its $900 million-to-$1 billion 2026 revenue outlook and positive adjusted EBITDA forecast.

Shares of Intuitive Machines (LUNR) logged a second consecutive weekly gain even as analysts cut their price targets, with a record $1.8 billion backlog and a packed slate of lunar and defense catalysts keeping Wall Street bullish.

LUNR shares jumped 8% on Friday to $19.01, gaining 16% for the week. 

Target Cuts Fail To Dent LUNR Bull Case 

B. Riley lowered its price target on Intuitive Machines to $43 from $45, still implying a 126% upside from current levels, while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating. The firm said softer second-quarter (Q2) revenue was “overshadowed” by the company’s expanded $1.8 billion backlog and continued contract wins. These factors drive its long-term growth outlook despite B. Riley adopting a more conservative 2026 revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates.

Meanwhile, Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target to $32 from $43, also implying a 68% upside from current levels, but kept an ‘Overweight’ rating. The brokerage said the record backlog, reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance, and major NASA, Golden Dome and defense awards reinforce Intuitive Machines’ growth outlook, with “multiple lunar and contract catalysts ahead.”

LUNR Q2 Review

Intuitive Machines reported a Q2 loss of $0.29 per share, wider than the $0.07 loss expected by analysts. Revenue hit $206.17 million, below the $221.12 million consensus estimate, but was more than 4x the year-ago level.

The company exited the quarter with $1.8 billion in backlog and more than 80 spacecraft under contract. It generated $1.7 billion in year-to-date bookings through the earnings call, including $1.2 billion in the second quarter through that date, marking the highest quarterly bookings total in company history.

CEO Steve Altemus called the quarter “strong,” citing “unprecedented bookings and backlog” as the company positions itself for its next phase of growth. 

Intuitive Machines reaffirmed its 2026 revenue outlook of $900 million to $1 billion and continued to expect positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year. CFO Pete McGrath said the company has “very strong visibility at the bottom end of the range.” The primary variable is the timing of contract finalization and backlog conversion and “not customer demand.” The company expects 25% to 30% of its Q2 backlog to convert into revenue in 2026, followed by 35% to 40% in 2027.

LUNR Eyes Golden Dome And NASA Growth 

Intuitive Machines delivered all 16 satellites supporting the Space Development Agency’s Tranche 1 Tracking Layer and continues production for Tranche 2. It also added 18 Tranche 3 Tracking Layer satellites and 18 AMDT3 satellites supporting the Golden Dome architecture. The company now has more than 70 IM-300 spacecraft under contract. Its commercial wins include three geostationary communications satellites worth more than $600 million over the next 30 months.

Intuitive Machines’ third lunar mission is scheduled to launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 between January and March 2027. Altemus said the company is looking forward to the flight and “a soft touchdown.” The company also expects to compete for NASA’s CLPS 2.0 program, estimated to be a more than $10 billion multi-award contract spanning 10 years, potentially followed by a five-year extension.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About LUNR?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for LUNR was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume.

One user said, “$LUNR added 920 million in awards in just Q2 alone. At the time of the earnings report… they had already added another 300 million in backlog in Q3….The future is looking big.”

View this Stocktwits post

Another user said, “$LUNR LUNR’s backlog multiple matches or exceeds most mid-cap space pure-plays, but with substantially faster revenue velocity (revenue quadrupling year-over-year in 2026)”

View this Stocktwits post

LUNR stock has surged 111% over the past year. 

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<