J.M. Smucker Warns Of Volume Hit As Coffee Prices Rise, Retail Mood Sours

J.M. Smucker raised its fiscal 2026 net sales forecast to rise between 3% and 5%, up from the prior expectation of 2% to 4%.

J.M. Smucker (SJM) CFO Tucker Marshall said that the current outlook for pricing in the coffee segment is going to be in the mid-20s range, including additional pricing actions in the early winter associated with the increased tariff rates that the company is seeing on green coffee.

“We would likely see an impact to volume in the low to mid-teens, therefore, having kind of a low to mid-teens overall growth for the (coffee) segment year over year,” Marshall said on a post-earnings call.

Retail sentiment on J.M. Smucker dipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘extremely bullish’ territory a day ago, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.

Shares of J.M. Smucker were down over 5% during midday trading on Wednesday. The company maintained its annual adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecast of $8.50 to $9.50.

The company raised its fiscal 2026 net sales forecast to rise between 3% and 5%, up from the prior expectation of 2% to 4%.

J.M. Smucker said that the increase in its net sales guidance will be offset by a higher impact from U.S. tariffs, which is now estimated to be a $0.50 headwind to fiscal year 2026, an increase of $0.25 versus the previous expectation.

CEO Mark Smucker on GLP-1 drugs' impact said that the company is monitoring potential changes to consumers who are taking it. “As we've said in the past, we still monitor this and really take a close look at the impact of GLP-1s and what they're having on food generally and more specifically our business,” he added.

GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity across the U.S., driven by growing demand for their dual benefits. Initially developed to treat type 2 diabetes, these are now widely sought after to help with weight loss by curbing appetite and enhancing feelings of fullness. 

“We still don't see any meaningful impact in our categories, and we will continue to make sure that we're offering the consumer products and variants of products that they are seeking, whether that could be reduced sugar or portion sizes and so forth,” Smucker said.

J.M. Smucker stock has declined nearly 5% so far this year and has fallen 8.5% in the last 12 months.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<