INTC vs AMD: Which Chip Stock Has A Better Upside This Year?

Intel has political tailwinds from the U.S. government backing, while AMD faces export uncertainty tied to China approvals.

• Intel trades above its average price target, implying about 22% downside, while AMD offers nearly 13% upside with a stronger Wall Street consensus.
• Intel flagged a “hand-to-mouth” Q1 as supply and margin pressures persist, with recovery targeted toward 40% margins later in 2026.
• AMD heads into earnings on Feb. 3 with focus on AI and data center demand, with key catalysts tied to OpenAI expected in Q4 2026.

As U.S. chipmakers enter a key earnings window, investors are reassessing whether Intel or Advanced Micro Devices offers the stronger upside in 2026, with earnings, analyst targets, and policy dynamics coming into focus.

Where Wall Street Sees The Risk And Reward

According to Koyfin data, Intel’s 12-month average price target is $42.46, below its current price of $54.32, implying a 22% downside. The stock is covered by 46 analysts, with one ‘Strong Buy’, seven ‘Buy’, 33 ‘Hold’, two ‘Sell’, and three ‘Strong Sell’ ratings, giving it a ‘Hold’ consensus.

Meanwhile, AMD’s 12-month average price target stands at $286.59, above its current price of $253.73, implying nearly 13% upside. The stock is covered by 53 analysts: five rate it ‘Strong Buy’, 36 ‘Buy’ and 12 ‘Hold’ — giving it a ‘Strong Buy’ consensus.

Intel shares have jumped 148% and AMD shares 105% over the past 12 months, both outpacing the S&P 500’s 15% gain and the SOXX semiconductor index’s 49% rise.

Intel’s Margins Under Pressure As Supply Tightens

Intel shares fell more than 7% after hours on Thursday as the chipmaker issued a softer outlook for the first quarter of 2026.

Following earnings, Roth Capital raised its price target on Intel to $50 from $40 while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating, implying an about 8% downside from the last close. The firm cited strong Q4 data center demand but said seasonally weaker first-quarter revenue and gross margin contraction are being driven by manufacturing constraints. Roth expects 2026 growth support from AI data center demand for Intel’s x86 CPUs, alongside traction from newer client processors and foundry and packaging customers.

On the earnings call, CFO Dave Zinsner said buffer inventory is largely depleted, leaving Intel with its most acute supply constraints in the first quarter.

“As we enter 2026, our buffer inventory is depleted,” Zinsner said, describing the period as a “hand-to-mouth” quarter. He said revenue would have been higher with adequate supply and that conditions should begin improving in the second quarter of 2026, though the company “won’t be completely out of the woods” immediately.

Intel said it is prioritizing wafer supply toward mid to high-end client chips and data center processors, even if that leads to short-term market-share shifts. Zinsner said the projected 34.5% gross margin in Q4 is “by no means an acceptable level,” and that recovery depends on yield and throughput improvements. The company’s first target is restoring margins to around 40% later in 2026.

AMD Enters Earnings With AI Catalysts In Focus

AMD is scheduled to report earnings on Feb. 3, with a focus on data center and AI demand. Earlier this week, Bernstein raised its price target to $225 from $200 while maintaining a ‘Market Perform’ rating, implying about 11% downside. The firm models Q4 revenue of $9.7 billion and earnings per share of $1.31.

RBC Capital initiated coverage with a ‘Sector Perform’ rating and a $230 price target, implying around 9% downside, and said major catalysts may not emerge until MI450 ramps for OpenAI in Q4 of 2026. Citi maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating and $260 price target, implying roughly 2% upside, citing muted margin leverage.

This month, AMD also signed a 10-year data center lease with Riot Platforms, securing 25 megawatts initially, with options to expand to 200 megawatts.

Policy Tailwinds And Headwinds

Intel continues to benefit from U.S. government support following Washington's 10% stake in the company in August 2025. U.S. President Donald Trump recently praised Intel’s Core Ultra Series 3 processors as domestically designed and manufactured.

Meanwhile, AMD faces export-related uncertainty under updated Commerce Department rules that require approval to sell advanced AI chips such as the MI325X to China.

How Did Stocktwits Users React?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for Intel was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume, with chatter soaring more than 300% and the number of watchers rising 16% over the past year.

Meanwhile, retail sentiment for AMD was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume, with message activity down 26% over the past year, while the number of watchers increased 6% over the same period.

One user noted that the chip rivalry between Intel and AMD “keeps momentum active.”

Another user said Intel has leaned heavily on government support, adding it has been years since it delivered a competitive product and that long-term contracts are fading, while AMD is “cooking them.”

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