Alcoa Stock Eyes Erasing Last Week’s Losses: Blowout Q4 Puts Spark Back In Aluminum Trade Despite Price Strain

Alcoa’s management sees higher alumina production in 2026 driven by productivity gains, even as China's supply dynamics and pricing pressure remain a near-term overhang.

• Shares of Alcoa lost 5.7% last week but have nearly undone that this week.
• CEO William Oplinger noted that anticipated smelting capacity growth, primarily in Indonesia, could provide some demand support over the second half of 2026.
• The company said it expects total Alumina segment production in 2026 to range between 9.7 million and 9.9 million metric tons.

Alcoa Corp is on track to reverse losses from last week after better-than-expected fourth-quarter results on Thursday, with investor and retail chatter rising as the aluminum producer expects further growth in its alumina segment this year.

Shares of Alcoa shed 5.7% last week but have nearly erased that this week, rising 5.1% through Thursday. Alcoa’s stock has gained nearly 19% so far this year after ballooning by 42% in 2025.

Price Pressure

CEO William Oplinger said during an earnings call that China's move to tighten controls on copper and alumina expansion under the NDRC's December policy, along with refineries' efforts to maintain stable production through annual contract negotiations, has sustained steady supply conditions and discouraged large-scale curtailments. 

“However, current pricing levels continue to put pressure on about 60% of China refineries,” he said, adding that incremental supply from expansion projects in China, Indonesia, and India, combined with potential lower demand from the Mozal smelter, may continue pressuring prices. 

Oplinger noted that the anticipated smelting capacity growth, primarily in Indonesia, could provide some demand support over the second half of 2026.

Earnings Snapshot

The company said it expects 2026 total Alumina segment production to range between 9.7 million and 9.9 million metric tons, up from 2025 due to productivity improvements. Alumina production decreased by 4% in 2025, primarily due to the full curtailment of the Kwinana refinery, completed in June 2024.

In 2026, Alcoa said that alumina shipments are expected to be between 11.8 million and 12 million metric tons. Last year, in the Alumina segment, third-party shipments decreased 2% annually, primarily due to lower trading activity and lower production.

Alcoa said it expects 2026 total Aluminum segment production to range between 2.4 million and 2.6 million metric tons, an increase from 2025 due to smelter restarts. In 2026, aluminum shipments are expected to range between 2.6 million and 2.8 million metric tons.

The company’s fourth-quarter revenue increased to $3.4 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations of $3.28 billion, according to data compiled by Fiscal AI. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.26, topping estimates of $1.01.

How Are Stocktwits Users Reacting?

Stocktwits sentiment on Alcoa jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bearish’ a day ago, with message volumes at ‘high’ levels. In the last 24 hours alone, retail message volume on the stock jumped 425%.

A bullish user on Stocktwits said that they expect the stock to hit $64 in Friday’s session.

Shares of Alcoa have gained 67% in the last 12 months.

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