Indian Refiners Could Increase Russian Crude Import As Discounts Widen

Urals crude prices fall to $2–$2.50 below Brent, boosting their cost appeal.

Indian refiners could reportedly increase their Russian crude imports due to rising discounts.

According to reports, Urals crude is trading at $2–$2.50 per barrel below Dated Brent, compared to a $1 discount earlier in July and August, making it increasingly attractive for India’s refiners.

Ship-tracking data suggests crude arrivals from Russia for October may average 1.7 million barrels per day, about a 6% increase month-on-month, though slightly lower than last year’s rates.

This movement comes even as India faces pressure from the U.S.’s 50% tariff on Indian exports, imposed to discourage the purchase of Russian oil.

While New Delhi maintains that its oil imports are driven by price economics, the government is also in talks with the U.S.. It is seeking alternative supply agreements in the Middle East and Africa, negotiating term deals that offer flexibility and resale options if circumstances change.

Refiners are cautious, however. The final decision to scale back Russian oil imports will balance the advantages of discounts, geopolitical risks, and evolving global energy dynamics.

Oil has been at the centre of the trade dispute between the United States and India. The US has accused India of funding Russia’s war on Ukraine by purchasing Russian crude. US President Donald Trump levied an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, taking the total tariff to 50%, the highest in the world.

India, on the other hand, has maintained its need to look out for itself amid the escalating trade tensions. While a US delegate recently met with Indian officials, talks appear to have slowed down.

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