Hyperliquid Is Building A $1B Business, Says Grayscale – But Traders Just Got Reminded Of The Risks Amid SK Hynix Turmoil

HYPE's circulating supply is estimated at 270-310 million tokens by 2027, said Grayscale, influenced by the unlocking of vested tokens at a rate of 550,000 per month.

• Hyperliquid's token is undervalued relative to other equities, said Grayscale, which predicted $1 billion in revenue by 2027.
• The firm employs an "earnings per token" framework, rewarding HYPE holders through fee burns instead of issuing shares, with projected EPT values between $3.25 and $3.75, according to the firm.
• However, the platform’s recent market volatility highlighted risks in Hyperliquid's perpetual futures market, where it failed to recover SK Hynix’s price despite the stock recovering fairly well after a crash. 

Hyperliquid's native token, HYPE, still looks "cheap" despite its massive rally this year, according to Grayscale Research, which projects the decentralized derivatives exchange could generate roughly $1 billion in annual revenue by 2027 using a new "earnings per token" valuation framework.

The firm has developed an "earnings per token" (EPT) framework to value HYPE, similar to how earnings per share is used to value traditional stocks. Hyperliquid does not issue shares. Instead, it uses trading revenue to reward token holders through mechanisms such as fee burns. 

Grayscale’s $1 billion revenue projection for 2027 represents a gain of around 20% over its revenue in 2025, with the firm pointing to a rebound in crypto trading volumes and a new stablecoin partnership linked to Hyperliquid’s Aligned Quote Asset version 2 (AQAv2) infrastructure as the main drivers. 

This bullish forecast comes even as the platform faces some scrutiny after a SK Hynix-linked perpetual futures contract triggered millions in liquidations earlier this week.

Why Grayscale Calls HYPE Cheap?

Supply-wise, HYPE has a circulating supply of approximately 270 million tokens. Grayscale estimates that number will be between 270 million and 310 million by the end of 2027, with the variation depending on how quickly core contributors unlock vested tokens, currently at a rate of about 550,000 HYPE per month, a pace the firm’s model multiplies up to five times in its higher-supply scenario. 

Combined, these earnings and supply projections imply an EPT of $3.25 to $3.75, implying a forward earnings multiple of 15 to 18 times at HYPE’s current price of $54, Grayscale said. Relative to comparable publicly traded fintech firms, the firm said, “On that basis, we think it looks cheap.”

Grayscale's key risks to the forecast are weaker-than-expected growth in network revenue and faster-than-expected growth in token supply. The firm said, “Hyperliquid, the breakout success story in perpetual futures, is not a traditional business.” 

SK Hynix Perp Liquidations Highlight Platform Risks 

This report comes a day after a pricing anomaly in an SK Hynix-linked perpetual futures contract built on Hyperliquid triggered over $80 million in liquidations across nearly 1,000 accounts, highlighting the risks of Hyperliquid’s fast-growing market for stock-linked perpetual futures, , according to on-chain analyst LookOnChain. 

The incident began after a single SK Hynix share traded at a discount of about 30% to the stock’s previous close in South Korea’s thinly traded pre-market session on Tuesday. That erroneous print was reflected in xyzSKHYNIX, a perpetual deal on Hyperliquid built by Trade.xyz, sending the contract down nearly 18% within minutes, even as the underlying stock recovered most of its value shortly after. 

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Trade.xyz, the market operator under Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework, said on X it would “cover liquidation losses attributable to the anomalous portion of the move.”

Retail Sentiment: HYPE

HYPE’s price was trading around $55, down 0.3% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, HYPE was one of the top trending tickers, as retail sentiment around it remained in the ‘Bearish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘high’ levels over the past day. 

Selling HYPE is like selling Apple (AAPL) stock into a buyback, it just flows back to Hyperliquid, one user on Stocktwits argued, adding that Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. (PURR) trades at a discount to NAV due to tax-treatment differences, and makes the case that leveraged on-chain perpetuals was “the future” of trading given 24/7 markets, no weekend gap risk, and reliance on tight stops.

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