HOOD Stock Gains After Bernstein Says Prediction Markets Could Become A $1.7B Business For Robinhood

Crypto-linked stocks, including Coinbase, Circle, Strategy and Bitmine, edged higher while investors awaited updates on the CLARITY Act and corporate crypto treasury announcements.

• Bernstein said it expects Robinhood's prediction markets business to grow at a 64% annual rate through 2028, generating roughly $1.7 billion in revenue.
• The firm believes prediction markets, perpetual futures and tokenized equities could account for nearly one-quarter of Robinhood's revenue by 2028.
• Bitcoin remained range-bound near $64,200, while Ethereum held steady around $1,860 ahead of another week of regulatory and company-specific catalysts.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rose in pre-market trade on Monday and led gains among large-cap crypto-linked equities after getting a price target hike from Bernstein.

The firm estimated that revenue from prediction markets would rise to hit $1.7 billion by 2028, buoyed by the company’s Rothera exchange joint venture. Analyst Gautam Chhugani raised the price target on HOOD’s stock to $160 from $130, and kept an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock. 

HOOD’s stock gained over 1% in pre-market trade. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the trading platform continued to trend in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, down from the ‘neutral’ zone a week ago.

Why Bernstein Turned More Bullish On Robinhood

Bernstein cited Robinhood’s expansion into prediction markets, perpetual futures, and tokenized equities as the reasons behind the price target hike. Chhugani projected compound annual growth rates of 32% for revenue, 47% for earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), and 49% for earnings per share (EPS) between 2026 and 2028. 

His revised price target is based on a 35-times forward earnings multiple and a 2028 earnings-per-share estimate of $4.56, roughly 36% above the Wall Street consensus of $118.28, as per Koyfin data.

Chhugani’s price target of $160 implies a potential upside of over 60% from Friday’s month-low of just under $100.

Who Is Robinhood’s ‘Frenemy’?

Bernstein also stated that Robinhood and prediction platform Kalshi have developed a "frenemy" relationship, with Robinhood still distributing Kalshi's contracts to customers while simultaneously offering event contracts through its own Rothera exchange, which currently accounts for 16% of Robinhood's total event contract volumes.

Chhugani firm believes that operating its own exchange gives Robinhood greater control over pricing, product development and long-term economics while still benefiting from Kalshi's marketplace.

Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group (SIG) acquired a majority stake in the existing LedgerX exchange in late 2025 and rebranded it as Rothera, launching event contracts in May this year.

For Robinhood's second quarter (Q2), the analyst expects results to be in line with consensus, with prediction markets revenue offsetting weakness in crypto. HOOD is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings on July 29, with Wall Street forecasting earnings per share (EPS) of $0.55 and revenue of $1.27 billion, according to Koyfin data.

Crypto Stocks Await New Catalysts

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading flat over the last 24 hours, with the overall cryptocurrency market dropping 0.9% on the day to around $2.25 trillion. Bitcoin’s price was trading at around $64,200, facing resistance whenever it broke past $65,000 for over a month. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the apex cryptocurrency trended in ‘neutral’ territory over the past day. 

Retail traders on the platform are watching to see whether or not Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) will buy, sell, or keep its Bitcoin treasury steady this week.

MSTR’s stock edged 0.5% higher in pre-market trade, with retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the digital asset treasury trending in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day. Similarly, Tom Lee-backed Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) also edged around 0.5% higher in pre-market trade, and is expected to announce updates to its Ethereum (ETH) treasury before markets open on Monday. Retail sentiment around BMNR’s stock trended in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day.

Ethereum’s price remained flat over the past 24 hours, trading at around around $1,860 at the time of writing. However, unlike Bitcoin, retail sentiment around the leading altcoin remained in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day akin to BMNR’s stock.

Shares of Coinbase (COIN) and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) also moved higher in pre-market trade, with investors watching for updates on the CLARITY Act this week. 

COIN’s stock and CRCL shares moved around 0.4% higher in pre-market trade. Retail sentiment around both companies, which have a 50/50 revenue share agreement between them for stablecoin USDC (USDC), trended in ‘neutral’ territory over the past day on Stocktwits. 

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