HIMS Stock Under Pressure: BofA Warns Wegovy Churn Could Threaten Its Big H2 EBITDA Ramp

BofA flagged churn risk once subscription pricing jumps from $39 in month one to $149 in month two.

• BofA raised its HIMS price target to $37 from $36 but kept a 'Neutral' rating, warning that retention among oral Wegovy users may be “softer than some expect.”
• Hims saw strong initial demand after launching oral Wegovy in April, but BofA cited June card data showing customers were relatively flat month over month.
• The firm said rival Ro’s declining new customers and plateauing base could be a warning sign, with Hims “highly likely” to follow a similar path.

Shares of Hims and Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) logged their third straight session in the red on Thursday after BofA Securities warned that potential churn among oral Wegovy users could make the company’s expected second-half earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) ramp harder to achieve.

HIMS stock slid 2% on Thursday to close at $35.45, with shares also down 4% so far this week. 

BofA Warns On HIMS Wegovy Churn Risk

BofA raised its price target on HIMS to $37 from $36, implying a 4% upside from current levels, while keeping a 'Neutral' rating. The brokerage firm said that emerging signs suggest retention of new oral Wegovy members could be “softer than some expect,” supporting BofA’s view that Hims’ implied second-half EBITDA ramp will be “difficult to achieve.”

Hims launched oral Wegovy in April and initially saw a strong response. But BofA cited BSM credit and debit card data showing that customers were relatively flat month over month in June. The concern is what happens after the introductory period ends. BofA warned that a meaningful subset of patients could churn once the subscription fee rises from $39 in month one to $149 in month two.

BofA pointed to Ro as a warning sign. Ro launched oral Wegovy two to three months before Hims and is already seeing a decline in new customers and a plateauing base, according to the firm. BofA said Hims is “highly likely” to follow a similar path, with some users dropping off after promotional pricing ends.

Hims Shifts To Branded Wegovy Under Novo Deal

The churn warning comes just months after Hims reset its weight-loss strategy around branded GLP-1 drugs. In March, Hims announced a new agreement with Novo Nordisk to offer FDA-approved branded GLP-1 drugs, including Wegovy and Ozempic, while ending advertising for compounded GLP-1 offerings and helping eligible compounded-GLP-1 patients transition to branded options. 

By late March, branded Wegovy pills and injections became available through Hims for eligible customers, with cash-pay access starting around $149 per month, plus a separate care membership fee.

Hims Bets On Peptides Despite FDA Caution 

Hims is also positioning for potential upside from peptides, a wellness category related to weight loss, recovery, joint pain, cognitive performance and longevity. Ahead of a July 23-24 advisory committee meeting, FDA staff said last week that there was insufficient evidence to support allowing compounders to manufacture BPC-157, Emideltide, Epitalon, KPV, MOTS-c, Semax, and TB-500, adding that safety concerns could not be ruled out.

This creates a regulatory overhang, but Hims has already moved early. In 2025, the company acquired a California-based peptide manufacturing facility to boost its domestic supply chain and support future work in preventive health, metabolic optimization and recovery science. Needham analyst Ryan MacDonald said the FDA staff view was “a bit of a surprise,” but “not the end of the conversation,” adding that he is still “operating under the assumption that they will get approved.”

How Do Retail Traders Feel About HIMS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for HIMS slipped to ‘bearish’ levels over the past week, down from ‘neutral’ a month ago, amid a 28% decline in 24-hour message volume.

One user noted that “$HIMS has gone 35 days without official investor news since June 4. Largest gap this year. One of the biggest since it became public.”

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Another user cautioned, “$HIMS If you are small retailer who has less than say 50M$ capital to survive severe drawdowns - beware - this may drop to 20$ - the trend reversed. Big dump coming tomorrow.”

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HIMS stock has fallen 31% over the past year. 

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