Global Smartphone Shipments To Dip In 2026, Says Counterpoint Research – Here’s How Manufacturers Are Rethinking Strategies

The market research firm said global smartphone shipments are now expected to decline by roughly 2.1% in 2026.

• Counterpoint cited that the rising chip costs could reshape vendor strategies and consumer pricing next year.
• The firm said global shipments are now expected to decline by roughly 2.1% in 2026.
• To cope with higher costs, some OEMs are adjusting specifications, streamlining product offerings, and moving toward premium models.

Worldwide smartphone unit shipments are poised to fall in 2026 as manufacturers grapple with sharply higher component costs driven by memory shortages and chip price spikes, according to the latest industry data. 

According to market research firm Counterpoint Research, the rising chip costs could reshape vendor strategies and consumer pricing next year.

Market Forecast Adjustment

Counterpoint Research said global shipments are now expected to decline by roughly 2.1% in 2026, compared with earlier projections of flat-to-positive growth. The revision is mainly driven by rising costs of memory components that feed into the bill of materials (BoM) for devices.

Entry-level phones priced under about $200 are forecast to see the toughest hit, with BoM costs climbing sharply over the past year, the firm noted. Mid-range and high-end devices also face inflationary pressures, but at somewhat lower rates.

As manufacturers pass at least part of these cost increases on to buyers, average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to rise in 2026. Larger brands with extensive product lines and strong vertical integration are said to be in a better position to absorb cost shocks. 

“Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters.”

-Yang Wang, Senior Analyst, Counterpoint Research. 

Industry Response

To cope with higher costs, some original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are adjusting specs, streamlining product offerings, and pushing consumers toward premium models with better margins. Counterpoint stated that this could accelerate market trends already underway toward fewer low-margin, entry-level handsets.

“In some models, we are seeing downgrades of components like camera modules and periscope solutions, displays, audio components, and, of course, memory configurations,” said Senior Analyst Shenghao Bai. 

“Other tactics include reusing old components, streamlining the portfolio, and pushing consumers to higher-specification ‘Pro’ variants and adopting new designs to stimulate upgrades.” 

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