Gene Munster Says Personalized AI Could Be Apple, Meta’s Next Big Profit Machine — 'Numbers So Large They’re Hard To Believe'

Munster sees the opportunity spanning both consumer subscriptions and enterprise spending, arguing that paid AI adoption remains in its early stages.

• Munster estimates that between 75 million and 100 million people currently pay for AI subscriptions across ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Grok, compared with roughly 5.5 billion daily internet users globally.
• That means only a small fraction of internet users currently pay for advanced AI, leaving what Munster calls an “underappreciated AI growth lever” for model providers and consumer technology platforms.
• Munster expects AI usage to increase as agents become more capable, eventually pushing users into higher-priced plans as they encounter usage and token limits.

Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster said in a new note that personalized artificial intelligence could become a major new source of revenue for Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Meta Platforms Inc. (META).

Munster sees the opportunity spanning both consumer subscriptions and enterprise spending, arguing that paid AI adoption remains in its early stages even as companies roll out increasingly capable models and AI agents.

“If Apple and Meta win even modest uptake in paid tiers, the impact on operating income will be material: an 8% to 90% increase, numbers so large they’re hard to believe,” he said.

Apple shares closed nearly 2% higher in Friday’s regular trade, while Meta shares fell over 3%.

AI Subscriptions Are Still ‘Underappreciated’, Says Munster

Munster estimates that between 75 million and 100 million people currently pay for AI subscriptions across ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Grok, compared with roughly 5.5 billion daily internet users globally.

That means only a small fraction of internet users currently pay for advanced AI, leaving what Munster calls an “underappreciated AI growth lever” for model providers and consumer technology platforms.

The major AI companies are also experimenting with increasingly broad pricing tiers. ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Grok offer multiple paid options, ranging from roughly $5-$10 a month to plans costing $100 or even $300 a month.

Munster expects AI usage to increase as agents become more capable, eventually pushing users into higher-priced plans as they encounter usage and token limits.

He sees a split emerging between mainstream subscribers and power users, with the latter potentially accounting for a disproportionately large share of revenue. In his scenario, power users could represent just 5% of paid subscribers but generate half of subscription revenue.

Munster Points To The Potential Boost From Personalized AI

Munster used Apple and Meta to illustrate how significant the financial opportunity could become if personalized AI gains widespread adoption.

For Apple, his conservative scenario assumes 20% of its estimated 1.67 billion customers pay $10 a month for additional AI features or tokens. That would generate about $40 billion in annual revenue and roughly $32 billion in additional operating income, which translates to an estimated 18% increase in operating income.

His aggressive case assumes 50% of Apple customers pay $20 a month. Munster estimates that could generate about $200 billion in annual revenue and increase operating income by roughly 90%.

For Meta, Munster's conservative scenario assumes 5% of its 3.6 billion daily active users pay $5 a month. That could generate about $11 billion in annual revenue and $9 billion in additional operating income, or an 8% increase.

His aggressive case assumes 25% of users pay $10 a month, potentially generating $108 billion in annual revenue and $86 billion in additional operating income.

He also argued that Meta's opportunity could extend beyond subscriptions because Muse could eventually take a cut of transactions facilitated through its AI system.

What Retail Traders Think Of AAPL, META Stocks

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Apple trended in the ‘bearish’ territory, while users felt ‘bullish’ about Meta.

AAPL stock is up 25% year-to-date, while META stock is up 14%. The S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is up 17% over the past 12 months, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is up 25%.

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