Gene Munster Says Apple’s $2,200 iPhone Duo Could Add $8B To FY27 Revenue, Sees 20M Units In Sales Even As Wall Street Expects Only 12M

Munster believes that the higher-priced iPhone Duo could become a meaningful contributor to Apple’s overall iPhone growth.

• Munster said his initial observations from Apple stores on launch morning strengthened his conviction in his 20 million-unit forecast, which would represent roughly 7% of total iPhone unit sales in FY27.
• He pointed to shorter launch-day lines compared with the iPhone XS and XS Max launch in 2018, but argued that the comparison needs to account for the iPhone Duo’s much higher price.
• Munster views the combination of fewer buyers and significantly higher revenue per device as evidence of a solid start rather than a weak one.

Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) $2,200 iPhone Duo appears to be getting off to a stronger start than Wall Street anticipated, with long lines at Apple stores on launch day prompting longtime Apple watcher Gene Munster to raise his confidence in the device’s sales prospects.

Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, expects Apple to sell 20 million iPhone Duo units in fiscal 2027, well above Wall Street’s roughly 12 million-unit estimate. He said the higher-priced device could become a meaningful contributor to Apple’s overall iPhone growth.

Apple shares ended with a decline of 0.1% in Friday’s regular trade, edged lower by 0.03% in the afterhours session.

Munster Sees 20M iPhone Duo Sales

Munster said his initial observations from Apple stores on launch morning strengthened his conviction in his 20 million-unit forecast, which would represent roughly 7% of total iPhone unit sales in FY27.

The forecast compares with the Street’s expectation of around 12 million units. Munster noted that the difference of roughly eight million incremental units could add about 3% to overall iPhone growth in FY27.

The bigger factor, however, is the iPhone Duo’s significantly higher selling price. Munster estimates that the additional customers would be moving from an iPhone with an average selling price of about $1,200 to the $2,200 Duo.

That combination could add approximately $8 billion to the Street’s current FY27 iPhone revenue estimate of $279 billion, according to Munster.

High Price Could Make iPhone Duo A Revenue Driver, Says Munster

Munster’s bullishness comes despite the Duo’s relatively higher price compared to other iPhones. The investor pointed to shorter launch-day lines compared with the iPhone XS and XS Max launch in 2018, but argued that the comparison needs to account for the Duo’s much higher price.

He noted that the iPhone Duo’s price is about 82% higher than the iPhone XS Max was at launch. As a result, Munster views the combination of fewer buyers and significantly higher revenue per device as evidence of a solid start rather than a weak one.

Wall Street currently expects the Duo to remain a niche product, accounting for about 4% of iPhone units and 7% of iPhone revenue in FY27. Munster is considerably more bullish, projecting the device will represent 8% of units and 16% of revenue.

He expects Apple’s overall iPhone business to grow 13% in FY27, compared with the Street’s 10% forecast, with the Duo providing part of that lift. Looking further ahead, he sees the device contributing even more meaningfully to the iPhone lineup in FY28.

What Wall Street Thinks

Last week, analysts at Evercore ISI noted that iPhone Duo delivery dates quickly stretched to late January across tracked regions and configurations, calling the demand signal “solidly out of the gate” while cautioning that supply constraints could also be contributing.

Munster similarly said lead times stabilizing around Jan. 25 increased his confidence in a 20 million-unit FY27 forecast, though he acknowledged Apple’s production capacity remains unknown.

The investor also noted that iPhone 18 Pro lead times have cooled, while Pro Max demand has held up better.

What Retail Traders Think Of AAPL Stock

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around Apple trended in the ‘bearish’ territory at the time of writing.

AAPL stock is up 28% year-to-date and 34% over the past 12 months. The S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is up 11% over the past 12 months, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is up 15%.

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